In the midst of a historical correction process, the Argentine economy begins to stabilize. The fiscal surplus, the deceleration of inflation and the decrease in poverty are concrete signs that The government achieved a macro system that seemed impossible a year ago. However, The market still does not fully validate this new stage. Because? Because, in Argentina, politics continues to mark the pace of country risk.
With this background, investors wonder how to position themselves in the different assets in pesos and dollars, without losing sight of the opportunities that the income variable can offer for the second half of the year.
Rate in pesos: for treasury management
In the front in pesos, short -term LECAP (August/September) appear as the best tool to beat inflation during winter. With rates greater than 3% monthly, they represent an efficient solution for business treasury and conservative profiles that privilege liquidity
For those who have a somewhat longer horizon, the TTJ26 allows freezing a fixed rate in pesos with positive real yields, an attractive option if inflationary expectations manage to rearrange downwards towards the end of the year.
Dollar rate: Selectivity and Credit Quality
In the dollar segment, the market shows a strong gap between the bonds that expire before 2027 and those who do it later. This difference reflects political uncertainty. For conservative profiles, the short -term boppreal remain a solid optionwith support in exports and low risk of duration.
But Investors with greater risk tolerance find value in bonds such as AE38 or GD35, which offer two digits with high compression potential if the elections confirm the course.
In addition, corporate credit is positioned as an intermediate alternative. Issuers such as YPF, Pampa Energía, Vista and Telecom offer attractive yields and solid balances. They offer yields IRR of approximately 8% with an exceptional credit rating
Actions: energy and banks, the chosen risk
The Argentine shareholding market has maintained a lateral behavior for months, partly due to the fall in the volume operated. But Energy and banking actions remain the main vehicle of aggressive investors that bet on a post -electoral recovery.
Companies such as Pampa, Vista, YPF, Galicia or Macro could lead a rally if the results of October validate the reform process. Meanwhile, current prices seem to offer a good entry point, with depressed values in front of their regional peers and flows that could be reactivated in the second part of the year.
In conclusion, the Argentine economy advances in its normalization, but the market awaits a political confirmation to begin to revalue local assets. Meanwhile, caring for the box in pesos, diversifying in quality corporate credit and maintaining selective exposure to Equity are strategies that allow being prepared without being out of the rebound.
* Partner in AT Investments
Source: Ambito
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