In the last tender of the Treasury, corresponding to the 14th auction of the year, the Government achieved a positive result: with maturities for more than $ 10 billion, it managed to refinance 76% of the total, obtaining offers for more than $ 9 billion. The result not only showed an improvement in the roll-over rate, but also a sign of trust in the instruments offered by the treasure, with strong demand from the market.
Among the most prominent instruments were two capitalizable letters (LECAP):
Both offered an effective monthly rate greater than 3.5%, which is equivalent to a TNA close to 50%. In a context where June and July inflation was below 2% monthly, these positive real rates generate an interesting opportunity in local currency.
But attractiveness is not exhausted there. By combining these pesos placements with coverage in future dollar contracts in Rofex, it is possible to build a conservative strategy that yields between 10% annually in dollars, according to private operators calculations. This strategy – appropriate as “rulo with futures” – consists of investing in pesos at 3.5% monthly, while ensuring a future exchange rate at prices already agreed, allowing freezing the value of the dollar to a level that, compared to returns in pesos, offers a favorable differential.
The Government has a clear objective of stable the official exchange rate between $ 1,280 and $ 1,320 to the elections, seeking to contain inflation and preserve some financial calm. This strategy has had an effect in the last two months, where inflation data was even below records in the United States, according to market analysts. However, this exchange stability requires sustaining high rates to discourage dollarization.
Therefore, the strategy of offering short instruments, with good rate and liquidity, such as these LECAP, seeks to avoid additional pressure on the dollar. In return, more than attractive yield is given to the investor in real terms, with short and predictable deadlines.
For the investor that seeks to take care of its capital in an electoral context with relative nominal stability, the LECAP S15G5 and S29G5 offer competitive returns in pesos, and when combined with positions in dollar future, they allow to capture a profitability in dollars of annual double digit. It is a tactical strategy, with limited risk and short duration, ideal for those who still trust the pre -electoral exchange anchor and prefer to wait with coverage.
Financial Analyst
Source: Ambito
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