The recent one deactivation of the Treasury Financing Lyrics (Lefis) silently modified the peso market operation. It was a technical decision, yes, but with structural consequences. The treasure stopped marking an explicit reference rate and went to regulate the system through monetary aggregates. This transformed the stage: The price of money in Argentina was built again from the behavior of the agentsnot signals set from above.
In this new context, the policy rate lost its traditional function and the market was at the mercy of more volatile references, such as the Daily Caution Rate. This rate – which reflects the cost of lending funds to one day – can vary significantly in short periods of time, and that implies an operational challengeespecially for those who seek to capture performance without assuming excessive risks.
Keys to building a wallet balanced
But the most relevant is not alone at the juncture. The truly transformative is the change in logic that this imposes on those who make investment decisions. It is no longer enough with “following the rate”: Now you need to build a strategy.
This scenario is encouraging increasingly sophisticated consultations. Institutional investors and companies begin to think about portfolios that articulate duration, liquidity and sensitivity to expectations. The market in pesos ceased to be a static space: today it demands interpretation. And that’s a Cultural changeNot only technician.
The current yield curve shows real real rates. Capitalizable letters (LECAPS) short -term They yield above projected inflation. This enables a new approach: invest in pesos It is no longer just a way to protect the dollar or CPI, but a Tool to capture value if the risk is properly managed.
The key is in the design. For conservative profiles, the short section of the curve continues to offer attractive rates with limited duration. For those who can assume more risk, opportunities appear in more balanced schemes: a “barbell” strategy, for example, that combines very short -term instruments with longer bonds linked to dollar or inflation, allows you to diversify the risk and take advantage of convexities.
What begins to consolidate is a more professional vision of investment in local currency. For years, defensive logic dominated the scene: Cover against inflation, “win” at the exchange rate, seek refuge. Today, that reflection must give way to a finer planning. The challenge is no longer just protecting itself, but optimize. This implies, for example, to analyze how liquid a portfolio should be according to the type of investor, consider the temporary horizon of the flow of funds, and define what function each asset fulfills: coverage, value reserve, capitalization or operational financing.
In short, Investing in pesos demands to assume a greater responsibility: Understand the macroeconomic foundations, read the market signals and apply technical criteria. There is no single way, but there is a common demand: Think before acting.
That is the value we can contribute from professional financial advice. Not to decide for the client, but to help him decide better. Because in an environment where rates are no longer dictated from a podium, The differential is in the strategy.
Source: Ambito
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