Fiscal adjustment, growing debt, dollar rising and social tension: the government faces its most critical moment with an economy that asks for change.
The initial whistle has already sounded and the “Messi of Finance” is on the court. Luis Caputo A game is faced that is not played in a stadium, but in the City of Buenos Aires, and that does not last 90 minutes … but 90 days. The rival is a fierce combined: growing fiscal deficit, commercial balance in recoil, debt that accumulates as a snowball and international reserves that do not reach to cover all attacks.
In the first minutes, the economic team seemed well stopped; An adjustment of the cost equivalent to 5 points of the GDP and a primary surplus of 1.5% in June showed defensive order. From the bank, the IMF applauded. But possession does not always win matches. The debt, adding capitalized interests, already showed a financial deficit between 2.1% and 4.6% of GDP, and the pressure of the maturities sneaked as a quick striker through the central lane.
The goal against the Lefi
The tactical plan was designed: anchor the monetary policy in the private transactional M2, leaving behind the arbitrariness of the monetary base and the “zero emission”. But sometimes, even the best player slips. On July 10, the disarmament of the Lefi became a non -forced error; Excess of liquidity for $ 9.9 billion, rates that collapsed at 10% and a dollar that began to step on the rival area, climbing almost 10% in a few days.
To stop the onslaught, the BCRA and the Treasury improvised: sales of Lecaps, reopening of passive passes at 40% and an extraordinary tender that captured $ 4.7 billion. The problem was that the game harden: 102% bond, advances at 86% and an increasingly expensive loan, leaving the real economy asking for change.
The rival enlarges: twin deficits and scarce financing
On the board, the fiscal score showed a primary surplus, but the rival -the combination of fiscal and external deficit stalked. The current account deficit was aimed at 2% of GDP and genuine financing was as scarce as tickets for a final. The initial laundering had contributed USD 20,000 million, the IMF added other USD 12,000 million, but oxygen lasted less than a counterattack. The maturity curve, more and more short, projected a jump from $ 40 to $ 60 billion monthly until the end of the year, equivalent to more than USD 204,000 million at the exchange rate of $ 1,300.
The gallery is divided: polarized consumption and social tension
While on the playing field the ball comes and goes, in the fans are divided. The high -income sectors continue to buy dollarized goods; The rest adjusts the basic expenditure. Unemployment grows and companies like Carrefour want to leave the country. In the streets, the protests of retirees and people with disabilities receive repression instead of dialogue. The social climate is tense, and the energy that once encouraged the team begins to transform into whistles.
Last minute strategy
In less than a month, the original monetary control plan became a exchange control scheme, where the priority became preventing the dollar crossing dangerous lines. The problem is that, as in every game that is played defensively, each clearance is temporary and the rival always attacks again.
Caro credit cools the economy, the lack of reserves reduces the reaction capacity and the market, impatient, looks at the stopwatch. There is no space for errors, any bad decision can become a goal against additional time.
Final comment of the rapporteur
The party enters its decisive stretch. 90 days of real play are missing and what is in dispute is not just an economic marker; It is market confidence, exchange stability and social peace. The “Messi of Finance” will have to shine very high rates, twin deficits and pressing maturities without losing reservations and preventing the dollar from breaking the goal line.
In this party there are no penalties or extra time; If the course is not corrected, the final whistle could come with a financial and political win.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/ UBA postgraduate professor and masters in private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, Author of 6 Books
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
