Argentina left the CEPO on Friday, April 11 in the afternoon, the first day of price of the dollar that could be purchased in the market was on Monday, April 14, and that day closed at $ 1,198, on August 5 the dollar was quoted at $ 1,330, which is 11%.
Among the months of April to July, inflation was 7.6%, so that the devaluation of the weight was greater than inflation, but similar to three and a half months of interest rate at 3.0%monthly, which would accumulate a 10.9%rate.
On April 14, the Al35 Bonus was worth $ 66.50, and today it is worth $ 65.45, but it must be commented that in the interim an income in dollars of US $ 2.06 was collected, this implies that it won more who had a bonus in dollars, than who had only dollars in his hand.
The one who bought YPF shares on April 14 paid them $ 42,400, while today they are worth $ 48,650 which would leave us a rate of 14.7%, an increase higher than the 11%devaluation rate.
I do not want to be redundant in the examples, but who bought dollars from the departure of the stocks to today, only beat inflation, and had a similar yield when investing in a fixed period. The dollar bonds rose more than the devaluation, YPF shares continued at the rise, and dollars deposits rose 10.9%.
On April 14 the reserves added $ 24,221 million, the monetary circulation $ 21.7 billion and the total of lace 12.3 billion.
With data as of August 1, the reserves total $ 41,034 million, rise at US $ 16,813 million, and not everything is borrowed.
The monetary circulation to August 1 is $ 23.8 billion, a 9.7%increase, this is due to the purchase of dollars that the treasury made in the market, which was an increase in circulating with support, it was not issuance.
The lace were located on August 1 at $ 17.6 billion, in total $ 5.3 billion more than in April due to changes in lace policy. This adds to the monetary base, but it is not monetary issuance, it is money from the banks that remain in the Central Bank.
The exchange market is defined by two divergent bands, when we reach August 14 the upper band will be located at $ 1,456.8, and the lower band in $ 960. If the dollar touches the upper band, the government sells dollars and contracts pesos, while, if it touches the lower band, the government buys dollars and expands the amount of currency. As we have not reached the upper band and neither at the lower band, the Central Bank has not intervened and neither has money.
Conclusion
. – The increase of the dollar was due to the disarmament of fiscal liquidity letters, known in the market as Lefi, but its rise was very limited, and It is highly probable that the dollar goes to the levels prior to the volatility unleashed by the Lefi. The expiration of this Opero instrument last July 17, and on that date the wholesale dollar was worth $ 1,275.
. – We do not see any reason for the dollar to follow the rise, quite the opposite, it would seem that we are going to a scenario where the dollar could quote below the levels reached in the previous expiration of the Lefi, and we do not rule out levels similar to those it had at the exit of the stocks.
. – We believe that, with the change of expectations at the international level, and the increasingly certain possibility of a low rate in the United States, our bonds and actions have an upward tour ahead.
. – To the extent that the low rates in the United States deepens, we do not rule out that investment funds invest in raw materials, and this translates into a recovery in prices of soybeans, wheat and corn.
. – The Government shows us fiscal surplus every month, the income of dollars for the current IMF program is strengthening the central bank asset. All this reinforces the expectations of GDP growth around 5.0% per year.
. – There is no catastrophe scenario ahead, the dollar can go down, and to confirm a decrease in rates in the world, we are at the doors of a country risk decline, and access volunteer debt markets. In this scenario we do not rule out a value of the dollar at much lower levels than the current ones, so you have to invest in bonds and shares, the dollar ticket ceases to be desire.
Source: Ambito
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