Support for different capacities programs, in compliance with the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which has constitutional rank was estimated by the OPC between 0.25% and 0.48% of GDP. The extension of the pension moratorium and exemption of the PUAM has an estimated fiscal cost of 0.391%. The hospital emergency would have an annual cost of $ 133 billion (0.012%). Including the emergency of Bahía Blanca would not arrive this “package” to cost 1% of GDP.
Thus it can be seen that The emerging fiscal deficit of the different initiatives would be much less than 2.5% of the GDP that the president said, Not only because of the exaggerated of the discourse figures, but also as in the sanction of the laws, the financing of the approved measures is provided.
2) Cash reductionist look
There is no doubt that having fiscal responsibility is a value. Also that Fiscal policy is an instrument, not an objective.
You cannot govern a country believing that governing is to handle a calculation form. If the accounts close to you, but the family does not eat, it is not educated, nor has health, value is lost, the share capital. The same goes for a company that temporarily closes the accounts, without investment, training a strategic look. In the long run.
Such a situation is also projected at the level of a country, “Close” the accounts in the short term at the expense of value generation, expressed in knowledge, health, scientific research and infrastructure developmentnot only reduces the growth of a country in the medium and long term, but also generates an imbalance of the accounts over time. Excel just closes if the country does not break.
3) The high cost of dissenting infrastructure and costs not accounted for
Linked to the previous point, it is clear that The “public spending” is not the same as “public investment.” Both the World Bank and the IMF made a severe self -criticism with respect to supporting programs that in the short term sacrificed the investment to have a better financial result.
Out of the impact of an “inefficient adjustment” on economic growth, greater inequality destroys human capital and that also affects growth in the long term.
For the rest, the Excel form does not count costs such as the lowest competitiveness of the productive sectors for neglecting infrastructure, the largest accidents due to roads in bad conditions due Naturally incentives to develop.
4) The country’s problem is external sector
He National Government insists that the basis of a successful economic program is the fiscal issue, but completely minimizes external imbalance.
The experience of the 90s and the Macri government is illustrative, the crisis is unleashed by an external sector deficit, caused by an importing opening and a backward exchange rate, with the absence of promotion mechanisms to the productive sectors. The same happened in Asia countries that in the 90s had a severe financial crisis even having fiscal surplus.
An external deficit much more dangerous for both the productive apparatus and for exchange stability that at other times in our history, while the world with both right -wing populist governments, conservative or progressive adopts measures to defend the internal market in the current context of war for world hegemony.
5) Voluntarism of non -emission
The government tries to give a “signal” of confidence to the markets announcing that it will prohibit the monetary issuance of the deficit.
Also here the local experience as an international reflects the useless or even harmful of a bad diagnosis and voluntary experiences.
The experiences of “zero deficit” such as those of 2001 or 2017 show that when you enter a recession scenario, you go beyond legislative limitations to monetary financing mechanisms, Included quasi coins, megacanje, “intangibility of deposits” in 2001 and debt impact as in 2019.
The same happened in 2008 when Europe went to the monetary issuance, Beyond the ceilings of the stability pact or the United States that in that year both with President Bush and Obama in 2009 went to monetary and debt financing to minimize the crisis. There are no laws that can survive beyond voluntarism when an emergency requires going to exceptional instruments and that is not right -wing or left heritage.
Let’s see what are the alternatives to generate resources to meet economic and social needs to recover growth and reduce inequality
1) Discuss an economic and social development project
Argentina owes a serious debate about its productive profile to generate the necessary genuine currencies to avoid the recurring external restriction in which both popular and neoliberal governments have fallen.
The underlying problem is that in Argentina there is no development plan, Absent subject in a long time, not even an economic plan, only a kind of financial plan that always succumbs when the generation of resources (supply) is less than the needs (demand) expressed as well as external, fiscal, financial, productive or social gaps. Gaps that end in a crisis in all these political, economic and social dimensions.
2) Need for a discussion about tax and spending structure in Argentina
Argentina is due a discussion about a tax and public spending reform both nationally, provincial and municipal for the purpose of reconciling efficiency, growth and equity, including federal co -participation.
Argentina is not a case of lack of resources but of bags of inefficiency and inequality. In the formulation of the 2024 budget, the different existing tax exemptions that reach 1.73% of GDP were detailed, expenses for different promotional regimes in force reach 0.61% of GDP. Clearly the sum of both fiscal efforts, almost 2.35% of GDP, is greater than the net fiscal cost of this package.
Thus, it should be discussed which of these higher expenses or resignation of tax revenues are socially valuable. The same with the entire structure of public spending and taxes.
Besides, The Government has made tax decisions (increased Budget to the SIDE, purchase of airplanes, low indiscriminate withholdings, tax decline to personal goods to sectors with contributory capacity, to name only some, which show that there are resources when there is “political decision” and that the measures taken by President Milei involve privileging non -essential expenses and lowering taxes to sectors with economic capacity. The Usa chainsaw are selective and does not affect the true “caste” to the privileged sectors of Argentina.
3) Recover the dialogue to specify the two previous objectives
The Executive Branch not only tries to impose a very questionable agenda, but does not dialogue or negotiate with the opposition or with the various social economic sectors of our country.
A development project that includes a rational discussion of resources, requires in a democratic framework, of an open dialogue other than the violent imposition of positions, the blackmail of the wallet or the dark businesses of the policy to obtain bad laws.
The only way to generate sustainable growth is to negotiate an economic and social political framework that is not what imposes a minority faction but a broad agreement that guarantees maintenance, beyond the government in turn of the rules of the game. Only in this way will distrust, lower the country risk and increase the investment.
Avoid genocide?
The government must thus depose the imposition of an agenda and maximalist attitudes and convene an economic and social political agreement to reverse a path that will eventually aggravate the crisis.
It is the government initiatives, the lack of political and social dialogue of a democracy and the absence of a rational economic policy that lead to a virtual economic and social genocide, not the partially reparative measures approved by Congress.
There are material and human resources in Argentina so that within the framework of minimum agreements and good management, a national project that reconciles growth, stability and justice can be built.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
