From the white room, President Javier Milei He spoke as who tries to convince an invisible auditorium that the tightrope on which he walks is, in fact, a six -lane highway. Behind, Caputo, Bausili, Quirno and Daza -The Trader- observed with the gestures of Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen In the movie Wall Street. The scene condensed a tacit message: Argentina is not calm; It is in a cornice, and below, the void.
The presidential narrative tried to convey order, discipline and predictability; Macroeconomic data, however, insist on telling another story. As Sautu (2005) warns, serious analysis requires interpreting contexts beyond official narratives, and in this case, the mismatch between speech and reality is as visible as disturbing.
The economic cornice: from the presidential discourse to the macro reality
The president said that the “stock” had disappeared, that wages won inflation and that the zero deficit was an insurmountable wall. However, reality shows that the stocks did not rise, it only flexible with adverse results and the dollar remains artificially content to favor Carry Trade operations of foreign investment funds.
The monetary order is more rhetorical than real; From March to July 2025, the monetary base grew 31.5%, while in the same period of 2023 the expansion had been 19%. Paradoxically, the government that promises discipline issues more than its predecessor, while resorting to very high rates to absorb pesos, making the financing of the public sector more expensive and compromising the sustainability of the debt.
Luis Caputo, Santiago Bausili, Pablo Quirno and José Luis Daza: The importation of the Wall Street manual
The economic team comes from the same professional lineage, investment banking and debt trading. As in their passage through the Government of Mauricio Macri, they have applied a recipe book of short of exorbitant rates, betting on the market to confuse liquidity with solvency.
In the last seven months there were less maturities, so they were left without renewing around 11,000 billion, resorting to higher lace, exorbitant and short yields, to prevent the exchange run would climb. But this policy dry the credit and deepens the recession. The plan, rather than stabilizing, seems oriented to sustain a “carry trade as a state policy”, ensuring the payment of interest to financial speculators.
The dream of monetary order
The official discourse presents inflation in descending tendency and reserves as “armored.” However, the country risk remains at levels that prevent access to external financing, and the current account went from a projected deficit of 0.4% to 1.8% of GDP in just 100 days (IMF).
Net reserves represent less than 6% of GDP, far from 20-28% typical of bimonnear economies. IMF itself reduced its requirements for accumulation of reserves because it understands that the country fails to get fresh currencies. In this context, the monetary order is an illusion, the Central Bank issues to pay interest and then absorbs with increasingly high rates, without achieving lasting stability.
From the recession to the loss of consensus
Activity numbers confirm the deceleration. The EMAE (monthly economic activity estimator) is lower than in the last year of Alberto Fernández, VAT collection fell 7.3% interannual in July, and the industry exhibits its worst recovery in 45 years. Consumer credit collapsed and delinquency in personal loans and cards doubled since December 2024.
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2012), to whom (the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Award in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024) underline that the nations that prosper are those with inclusive institutions; In Argentina, the concentration of decisions in a reduced nucleus and the hostility towards Congress undermine the institutional framework necessary to sustain growth. The “Capunegger Risk” -whiles of recent history, financial dependence and political volatility- replaces the traditional “country risk”.
Argentina as a laboratory of “Capunegger risk”
The “Capunegger Risk” reflects a scenario in which monetary and fiscal policy hostages the short -term speculative flows. The country becomes a policy laboratory that prioritize immediate financial profitability over productive investment.
This model does not attract foreign genuine direct investment. As Diamand (1973) points out, without a consistent industrial strategy, the economy is trapped in a cycle of structural delay and dependence on swallow capital. The result: high volatility, low investment and growing external fragility.
The crisis horizon
From here to January 2026, Argentina needs US $ 9.3 billion to face debt maturities and commitments with international organizations. Without access to external financing and with limited net reserves, the options are reduced to face a exchange crisis.
The risk does not reside solely in the magnitude of the payments, but in the inconsistency of the program: between 4 and 5 points of primary surplus to stabilize, when the IMF projects only 1.6-2.5, assuming an improbable “extraordinary remumination” and voluntary of the IMF. The adjustment, in this context, is more a narrative than a fiscal reality.
Potential outcome
The Milei government walks through an increasingly narrow economic cornice, while proclaiming that advances on a safe route. The markets perceive the difference and react accordingly. Caputo and his team insist on a financial manual imported by Wall Street, oblivious to the structural conditions of the country, and repeat the same experiment that failed in 2018.
The Argentine economy faces a classic dilemma; Continue betting on the financial bicycle with increasing rates and decreasing deadlines, or reconstructing a genuine and stable growth path. As Sautu (2005) warns, “the erroneous interpretation of reality does not modify it, it only makes it more dangerous.” In this cornice, the problem is not just vertigo; It is that, when it falls, the void does not negotiate.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/ UBA postgraduate professor and masters in private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, Author of 6 Books
Source: Ambito
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