The Government will harden from Monday the lace regime and will force entities to integrate part of them with public titles issued by the Treasury, according to the communication “A” 8302 of the BCRA.
This week, Argentine economic policy has offered a new example of its usual dissonance between speech and action. Under the flag of a manual liberalism, President Javier Milei and his team – integrated by former Wall Street operators – have implemented a set of measures that, far from expanding economic freedom, They reinforce an interventionist financial control About the banking system. The communication “A” 8302 of the BCRA, which hardens the lace regime and forces entities to integrate part of them with public titles issued by the Treasuryrepresents a political and economic paradox: a government that proclaims deregulation while managing with the precision of a Trader defensive, with one eye in the dollar and another in the interest rate.
As Taleb warns, “the worst place for a Trader Hopefully it is the one where its decisions affect millions. ”This warning charges special relevance in a context where the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and the president of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, transfer logics of the money tables -Arbitraje, repression of volatility, management of spreds- to public policy, reproducing schemes that have already failed in 2018. The immediate result of this “stocks to banks” is triple: credit increase, liquidity contraction and subordination of the stability of the financial system to short -term exchange objectives.
The official narrative insists that the libertarian model requires a transition to correct “the lousy inheritance bequeathed by Peronism for decades.” However, current measures – as well as those applied during macrismo – show a Selective intervention In defense of the exchange strategy. The BCRA arranged a Increase of 5 percentage points in lace on sight deposits, fixed deadlines with early cancellation and funds Money Marketallowing part of that demand to be integrated with treasure bonds acquired in special tenders. At the same time, it hardened the calculation of lace, demanding daily compliance and establishing fines equivalent to Three times the monetary policy rate In case of non -compliance.
This engineering does not only pursue a prudential end, but It forces banks to finance treasure and prevents surpluses of liquidity from moving to the dollar or prices. In terms of Lewis, it is a bluff financial; A movement that appears to be a neutral technique but whose real objective is to hold the game table enough time to reach the next hand.
The macro context is adverse; The treasure managed to renew just 61% of the $ 15 billion that overcome in the weekthe wholesale dollar has ten wheels without rising, but unfortunately the 14% jump in July has already moved to the food, which rose 3.1% in August; and the electoral uncertainty keeps external and local capitals in dollars. In the absence of instruments such as Lefis to order the rate, the official strategy is limited to administering short -term tensions, replicating the logic of Carry Trade that Taleb define how “Fragile strategy that seems robust until it ceases to be”.
After a new rise of bank lace, dollar receded 22 cents at $ 30.49
The increase in lace generated a missing equivalent to 4.1% of the deposits in pesos, forcing entities to look for $ 6 billion. In this sense, Caputo operates as the “government trader” described in The fortune of the rascals: an operator who, far from managing a state with development vision, keeps the sedated market with superficial data, ‘Buying Time’ while the model generates severe social damage.
The speech of austerity and inflation control contrasts with reality; the exchange interventions and stocks to banks They constitute a financial repression designed to guarantee the performance of the Carry Trade of trapped funds, avoid runs and hold the exchange of exchange calm. This contradiction confirms the thesis of The poker of liars: “In the Wall Street negotiation room, the truth is an unnecessary luxury. The essential thing is that the other creates what it is convenient to believe” (Lewis).
Structural vulnerability persists. There is no “diver fart.” Indexed indexes in pesos, Fall of collection and credit increase They reinforce a recessive scenario. As Taleb warns, “When an operator ignores rare events, he always wins … until he stops winning”. The question is what will happen when the shock arrives. The provisions was made considering that fiscal and monetary needs are contradictory: i) The interest rate paid by the Government, Increase fiscal deficit for higher financial cost and collection drop-For sales of sales. II) Without stocks to banks, without extravagant interest rates, the dollar could not be contained. The Lefis weights went to the dollar that increased 14%, suddenly.
The government argues that current measures are a necessary step in the “transition” towards a full economic freedom model. However, recent Argentine experience -and the history of Traders accrued in officials- forces to question that narrative. The hardening of lace, the forced placement of public titles and direct intervention in the exchange market are not simple technical adjustments; They are clear signs of a “selective interventionism”aimed at maintaining a delicate electoral and financial balance, even at the cost of damaging activity and credit.
In 2018, the same architecture, With the same actors collapse under the weight of their inconsistencies, leaving a ballast, recession and institutional discredit. Today, the margin of maneuver is much lower, the greater external vulnerability and the most fragile social trust. If the current bet failswe will not only face a new episode of instability; We could attend a disrupted superior magnitudewhose cost will pay again the productive sectors, savers and taxpayers. The risk is not only economic, it is cultural and institutional. Because If fiction is naturalized as a government strategy, the next crisis will not only be financial.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. Postgraduate professor at UBA and private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, author of six books.
Source: Ambito
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