In contemporary Argentina, economic policy resembles an economic plan and more to a casino administered by traders with official credential. Each measure looks improvised, as if Luis Caputo and his team read the “Monday’s newspaper” and ran to cover holes on Friday: “We are going to buy in the lower band”, then they disarm the Lefis and shoot 14% The dollar. They upload the rate to triple the estimated inflation, the tenders fail and then the lace rises extravagantly. The bond rate on a business day drops from 80% to 2%.
In this theater of operations, the IMF is presented as a server of seriousness, JP Morgan Global Data Watch, Global Economic Research (15 August 2025) as an infallible oracle and the hegemonic media as rapporteurs of the epic of the adjustment. But the truth is that, behind the rhetoric of stability, there is a money table administered behind the backs of citizenship, where priority is not social welfare but the conservation of financial privileges (Stiglitz, 2002; Sautu, 2005).
The Republic of the Causion to one day
Milei’s Argentina seems to have found its definitive identity, it is not a nation or a development project, but a money table. The Government improvises every week, “cover” holes with short -term debt and manages macroeconomics as if it were a portfolio of high -risk investments. Meanwhile, hegemonic media applaud and multilateral organisms bless.
The result is a story that promises stability, but that actually constitutes an electoral and financial armor mechanism. As Sautu (2005) points out, the researcher must observe both what was said and omitted; And in this case, the omitted is nothing less than the structural unsustainability of a model designed to gain political time rather than to guarantee development.
The economy as a money table
Recent events confirm that the Argentine State acts as a “trader” in trouble. The peso market showed extreme volatility: on Monday, August 18, the caution rate-during the same day- collapsed from 65 % to 2.1 %, while banks were left with $ 5.8 liquid billion that the BCRA absorbed through putting titles and forced lace. The same day tell us that financial deficit amounted to $ 168,515 million, 247 % higher than the average of previous months.
This short -term management reveals that the economic team does not plan, improvise. As Ironiza Stiglitz (2010), when the economy is administered as a global casino, the costs of failed bets always fall on citizenship. Milei-capital management seems to confirm this dynamic: benefits concentrated in the financial sector and social costs for the rest.
The Bermuda Triangle: IMF, JP Morgan and Caputo
It is not just technical errors. The core of the economic team has a common corporate DNA; That is, his passage through JP Morgan. Luis Caputo, Santiago Bausili, Pablo Quirno, Vladimir Werning, José Luis Daza and Demian Reidel went through their offices before occupying key positions in the government.
Economic decisions respond to the logic of the international creditor and not to that of the citizen. The IMF provides disbursements, JP Morgan writes “optimistic” reports and the Ministry of Economy executes policies that guarantee financial returns, although they imply recession and internal poverty.
Financial narratives as public policy
The JP Morgan report of August 15, 2025 projected good news, with an obvious excess of good will. The explicit condition is that freedom advances triumphs in Buenos Aires and in the national elections. Here politics ceases to be citizen representation and becomes Bond valuation input.
As Callon (2007) warns, financial speeches not only describe reality; They performed it, mold expectations and reconfigure behaviors. The problem is that empirical data contradict the narrative, they broadcast more than Alberto Fernández; The monetary base grew 31.5 % in five months, the debt placements of the month of July were 38 average days and net reserves remain negative. The discursive armor, more than stability, constitutes a financial delirium.
Electoral armor and devalued democracy
The link between finance and politics reaches its most stark expression here, the country risk depends on the electoral calendar. As O’Donnell (1994) points out, in delegative democracies, power is concentrated in the Executive, weakening institutional controls. The novelty is that, in the financial version of 2025, the elections are valued only for their impact on the investment confidence.
The Government faces twelve legislative defeats and lacks a majority in both cameras. Even so, international reports present Argentine politics as a market appendix. Stiglitz (2002) warns that when the IMF becomes a political referee, democratic sovereignty is emptied of content. What is legitimized is not the citizen will, but the stability of financial flows.
Between armor and collapse
The apparent stability hides unsustainable tensions:
- Prosecutor: The IMF estimates that a 1.6% surplus to 2.5% of GDP stabilizes debt, when reality shows the need of 4% -5%.
- Monetary: the BCRA must maintain high rates to contain the dollarbut that destroys credit and collection. The economy stops and expands the fiscal deficit. They have already accused financial fiscal deficit in July, even extending a accrual deficit of between 2% and 4% of GDP.
- External: JP Morgan plans to raise negative net reserves for December 2025, but there will be maturities for US $ 10,000 million in the remainder of the year.
The result of this fiction is a double contradictory mandate; Stabilize the macro without destroying the real economy. As in 2018-2019, the story threatens to repeat itself, Caputo improvisa, the IMF finances, JP Morgan applaud, and the outcome is a reservation and debt crisis.
The stability farce
The hypothesis is confirmed, the current FMI-JP Morgan-economic device is an electoral shield disguised as an economic program. It is not a plan, but the real regime is, a transactional truce to sustain governance to the elections.
But financial dreams have expiration date. When the story loses credibility -after the electoral contest -the economy will be naked in its fragility. As Sautu (2005) points out, what is hidden is as relevant as what is shown. And what is hidden here is that, after the passage of Caputo and his team, Argentina will be even more indebted, more unequal and more dependent.
Ultimately, citizenship can not be served at the same time and financial wealth. The economic team chose who to serve.
In conclusion, The current economic experiment is not a stabilization plan, but an exercise of “pretending dementia” collective. IMF, JP Morgan and the economic team build a story that sells stability while the country is emptied with reservations, the debt is more expensive and the recession is deepened. As happened in 2018-2019, history threatens to repeat itself. Caputo and his team improvise, markets applaudand when they leave they will leave behind a more indebted, more unequal and more dependent country. The question that is floating is yes citizenship will accept being governed as a portfolio “ASSET” Or if, finally, the economy will serve the citizen again before global money tables.
References
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Publishers. Callon, M. (2007). What Does It Mean To Say That Economics is Performative? In D. Mackenzie, F. Muniesa & L. Siu (eds.), Do Economists Make Markets? On the performativity of economics (pp. 311-357). Princeton: Princeton University Press. O’Donnell, G. (1994). Delegate Democracy. Journal of democracy, 5(1), 55-69. Sautu, R. (2005). Everything is theory: research objectives and methods. Buenos Aires: Lumiere. Stiglitz, J. (2002). GLOBALIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS. New York: WW Norton & Company. Stiglitz, J. (2010). Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the sinking of the world economy. New York: WW Norton & Company.
Director of Esperanza Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/ UBA postgraduate professor and masters in private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor of Political Science, Author of 6 Books
Source: Ambito
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