The Ministry of Economy specified on Monday an extraordinary tender of Tamar lyrics in which he managed to capture about 3.8 billion pesos, a figure practically equivalent to the liquidity surpluses that had remained without renewing in the tender last week. The objective of this operation was clear: to absorb as many weights as possible of the financial system to prevent this liquidity from pressing on the dollar in a context where exchange stability is a central point of economic policy.
The particularity is that it was an emergency tender, outside the usual schedule, and directed exclusively to banks, since these are the main actors that, from the rise of mandatory lace provided by the Central Bank, needed liquid and eligible instruments to integrate part of those demands. In this way, the Government added one more chapter to a monetary absorption strategy that, although successful in the short term by the magnitude of the amounts placed, maintains open the discussion about the sustainability of the debt in pesos and the financial costs that the treasure is willing to validate in each placement.
Tamar letters are debt instruments issued in pesos, adjusted by the monetary policy rate. This implies that its performance does not depend on a fixed interest or an inflation index, but on the reference rate defined by the Central Bank based on the collection and current monetary policy. In this way, the Tamar became an instrument designed to give predictability to banks in terms of performance, but at the same time serve the treasure to sterilize liquidity surpluses with a lower cost than other traditional bonds, especially in a market that has been showing growing selectivity and demand for very high rates.
The fact that this tender was oriented only to banks is not a minor detail. Days ago, the Central Bank ordered an increase in bank lace, that is, the percentage of deposits that entities must immobilize and cannot allocate to grant credit. At the same time, he enabled the possibility that part of these lace is covered by holding certain public titles. Among those instruments are just the letters tamar. Thus, Monday’s tender worked as a bridge between the monetary regulation needs of the Central Bank and the Treasury Financing Strategy. The banks were convenient to integrate these lace with Tamar because they offer indexed yield, and the government allowed it to withdraw from the market practically all the weights it sought to absorb.
The result was overwhelming: of the 3,799 billion that had been offered, 3,788 billion were awarded, which is equivalent to an almost full acceptance. The title placed expires in November 2025 and will pay a rate equivalent to tamar plus 1% annual nominal. It is a much lower spred than the one that had been validated in the previous tender, held on August 13, where the annual effective rate of effective return came to exceed 69% in the letters that expire in September. This episode lit alarm lights in the market and in the economic team itself, since it highlighted the tension between the need to renew the debt in pesos and the growing cost involved in these placements.
So far from 2025, the Treasury already managed to renew more than 50,000 million dollars equivalent in debt in pesos, a figure that accounts for the magnitude of the financial program and the effort of sustaining such a large local debt market. However, beyond the placement numbers, the key goes through the ability to consolidate a sustainable path. In order for the strategy to work, it is not enough to roll the maturities month by month: it is necessary that the market perceives that the instruments in pesos are attractive not only because of the short -term rates, but also for a reasonable expectation of macroeconomic stability.
The great challenge of the government is, therefore, to find a balance. On the one hand, it must absorb surplus liquidity and finance the deficit without resorting to direct monetary issuance, in line with the commitments assumed of fiscal and monetary discipline. On the other, it must do so without validating rates that, in effective terms, can be explosive to debt dynamics. The tender of August 13 showed precisely that tension: the need to offer such high yields to achieve renewal lit alerts on sustainability. The emergency tender on Monday, on the other hand, allowed to show that it is possible to absorb pesos with a much smaller spread, provided that the instruments are designed in a coordinated manner with the regulatory needs of the banks.
In this sense, the interaction between the Treasury and the Central Bank charges a determining role. The increase in lace was a measure that sought to harden monetary policy, reduce the capacity to expand credit and, at the same time, generate demand for eligible public titles such as Tamar. The extraordinary tender on Monday was mounted on that basis, which explains its success. However, analysts warn that not all tenders can replicate this scheme, since the bulk of peso financing requires capturing funds beyond the banking system and in longer -term instruments.
The sustainability of debt in pesos depends, ultimately, that the treasure can diversify its placements and avoid concentrating only on short -term maturities, which increase vulnerability to changes in expectations of expectations. The risk is that, if the market perceives that the Government only manages to refinance with very close maturities, the load load is concentrated and a snowball effect is generated. Hence, the strategy of combining ordinary tenders with traditional instruments (Boncap, Bonce or Bonds Linked) and extraordinary placements such as Monday with Tamar, seeks to give signs that the treasure has flexibility and ability to handle different scenarios.
Another aspect that cannot be overlooked is the impact on exchange expectations. The decision to absorb weights in the market responds to the fear that surpluses are channeled towards the purchase of dollars, pressing on financial exchange rates and eventually on the gap. When withdrawing 3.8 billion in a single day, the government sought to send a message of discipline and control, trying to prevent the leftover weights for last Thursdays to become fuel for a run. For now, the effect was positive in terms of short -term rates, which showed some normalization after having climb up to levels close to 80% in caution operations last week.
The background question, however, remains if these types of specific measures reach to stabilize a market that demands more structural signals. The government knows that you must build credibility around its ability to sustain debt in pesos over time. To do this, not only absorb pesos today, but also show that it has a consistent fiscal path, that inflation will tend to go down and that the exchange rate will remain under controll. Sustainability is not defined in a tender, but in the perception of medium term.
Within that framework, Monday’s tender can be read as an operational success and at the same time as a symptom of the fragility of the current scheme. It was successful because he managed to capture practically everything that had been proposed and because he did it with a much lower spread than in previous placements. But it is a symptom of fragility because it required a particular financial and regulatory engineering, and because it shows that the market remains extremely sensitive to each movement of fees, lace and expectations.
The immediate future will depend on the capacity of the economic team to continue balancing tax needs with monetary restrictions. Each tender is a test in itself, but it is also part of a major process: to rebuild a capital market in pesos that can finance the State without unsustainable costs. The challenge, therefore, is double: convince the market that the current instruments are attractive and, at the same time, demonstrate that the economic program offers a stability horizon. Yesterday’s tender gave a positive signal, but the construction of trust will continue to be the key in each new placement.
Financial Analyst
Source: Ambito
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