After years of inflationary urgency, Julio shows a different panorama: inflation is moderated, the Pass-Through The dollar weakens and the real rates take prominence.
Julio left a fact that breaks with the logic of recent years: the inflation General was from 1.9%with an inflation core of 1.5%the lowest level since 2018. Even with a exchange jump in the middle, the Pass-Through Classic that immediately moved the dollar movements to prices.
This behavior is not anecdotal: marks a regime change. For years, inflation was the variable that explained everything. Financing and coverage decisions were taken under the same imperative: survive the constant deterioration of purchasing power. Today, that urgency begins to give in. Inflation remains relevant, but no longer monopolizes the reading of the economy.
What occupies the center of the scene are the real rates. The latest tenders validated yields that, in effective terms, imply high financial costs, even in a context of more content prices. The result is a new dilemma: it is no longer enough for inflation, now we must evaluate how to manage deadlines, risks and opportunities in a market that demands a more sophisticated strategy.
The market reflects it. He Breakeven of inflation by 2025 is located around 28.6%barely above the projections of the REM (27.3%), which indicates that a coverage premium still persists, but with more anchored expectations than in the past. At the same time, the CER curve is accommodated in the longest sections and fixed income Hard Dollar It maintains differentials that reflect exchange volatility. They are movements that force to accurately read the interaction between inflation, rates and expectations.
The change of scenario redefines the logic of the financial strategy. The lower inflation does not eliminate the risks, but it does transform them: companies and investors must get used to operate in a different regime, where the real challenge is to plan. That implies administering surpluses more intelligently, diversifying instruments and calibrating decisions based on longer horizons.
The risk is to continue managing with the emergency mentality, as if nothing had changed. The opportunity is to take advantage of this inflationary predictability window to build more solid and resilient financial structures even in a context of expensive and selective credit.
Inflation no longer defines all movements. Today, it is the rates that mark the pulse. And that simple turn changes much more than a rate: Change the way we think about the economic strategy forward.
By Oscar Llano, Commercial Director Mills Capital Group and Vice President of Mills SGR.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
