This article and tomorrow (2 brief articles) compare Economic policies, decision -making and socioeconomic results of the governments of Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) and Javier Milei (2023-), articulating a Analytical frame Inspired by Ruth Sautu (Knowledge Production and Methodological Design Rules) and Michel Callon (socio-technical networks and translation) to explain The persistence of the same repertoire of ideas, actors and financial circuits.
We support three main hypotheses: (H1) there is continuity of people and coalitions (eg, Caputo, Sturzenegger, Bullrich) and their networks; (H2) exists Instrumental continuity (external indebtedness, accelerated deregulation, exchange anchors with high rays and opportunities for trader); (H3) exists Continuity in regressive distributive results (initial inflationary, recession, high poverty) with “Shack” and “Rapid Gradualism” rhetoric.
Methodologically we combine documentary and press analysis with official data (BCRA, INDEC, IMF) and academic literature. Among the findings, we show (i) Equipment overlap: Patricia Bullrich returns to security; Luis Caputo passes from Finance/Bcra (2017-2018) to Economics (2023); Federico Sturzenegger passes from BCRA (2015–2018) to Minister of deregulation (2024) (Reuters; Official Gazette; El País). (II) Instrument continuity: from the 2016-2018 LEBAC cycle (IMF 2021) to the “shock” of 2023-2025 with 70/2023 DNU and “Base Law” (Official Gazette) and programs such as Bopreal (BCRA; Reuters). (III) results: 2024 commercial surplus record next to poverty> 50% in 2024/2025 (Reuters; AP; Checking/UCA). We conclude that The variation is more speed than of course – “The same, but faster”- attributed and documented phrase in Macri (2019), which works as discursive bridge Towards Milei. Precedeing the 2019 elections, Mario Vargas Llosa asked Mauricio Macri what his eventual second government would be like. Macri confessed: “The same, but faster.”
In the City Porteña there are traditions that do not fail: bitter coffee, Excel with macros, and the promise -solemne, technocratic- that now yes The market will reward us for being “serious.” Then, the facts: shock of expectations, sensitive dollar, “bicycle” euphoria-de-corto-plazo, drought of productive investments and, in the end, a morality about the austerity of others. Between 2015-2019 and 2023-2025, the score changed director, but Not musicians: Bullrich returns to security with the poise of who already knows where the folders are; Sturzenegger It reappears, now as a minister of deregulation; Caputo Play from TOTO in all positions of the economic cabinet. (Reuters; El País; Official Gazette).
If it is marketing, there were even retro slogan: “We will go in the same direction, but faster” -, a kind of “public beta” of the Mileism. Because if the Capital flows They are attracted to astronomical rates and a promise of nominal stability, why not accelerate? Lebac in the first season; exchange bands, DNU 70/2023 and Bopreal in the second (BCRA; Official Gazette; Reuters).
This work, written from a perspective of International Economic Policy, Political Science and corporate financehe argues that Macri and Milei constitute the same constellation: Continuity of socio-technical networks (Callon), continuity of Government technologies (Sautu: Explicit Inferential Rules), and continuity of results: poverty around or above 50% at the start of the “shock” (UCA/INDEC; Reuters; AP) living with External and fiscal surplus celebrated in English (Reuters).
Method and Ethics Note: We avoid incriminating statements without judicial support. We stick to documented facts already Evidence of institutional performance and design, leaving explicit when we cite criticism or opinion.
Hypothesis
- H1 (continuity of elites and networks): The Cabinets and BCRA Macri/Milei share Decisory nuclei and links (Caputo, Bausili, Bullrich, Sturzenegger), which Standardiza Politics responses. (Reuters; El País; Official Gazette).
- H2 (instrumental continuity): Both governments privilege accelerated deregulation, Financial Opening, exchange anchors and High performance schemes in pesos that enable Carry Trade (IMF 2021; BCRA; Reuters).
- H3 (continuity of distributive results): Even with tactical differences, the two cycles exhibit inflationary peaks, Stanflation/recession, High poverty and short -term financial winners (Reuters; AP; UCA/Check).
Theoretical framework and methodological design
Following Sautu, we treat “Everything is theory” not as a cynical slogan, but as Operational mandate: Explain assumptions, Operationalize concepts (continuity of elites; policy instruments; distributive results), define Analysis units (Cabinets, decrees, macro packages) and validity criteria (triangulation of official sources and series). (Sautu, 2003/2010).
Method: Documentary analysis (decrees, DNU 70/2023; appointments), economic press analysis (Reuters, FT, El País), Official Reports (IMF Ex-Post Evaluation 2018 SBA; BCRA/BOPREAL; INDEC/UCA), and Temporary contrast 2015-2019 vs 2023-2025.
Socio-technical networks (Callon)
The notion of translation (Problematization, interest, enrollment, mobilization) (Callon, 1986) helps to understand how financial experts, consultants, ministers and media produce short -term consensus in favor of “shack/rapid gradualism” and vehicles (Lebac, Leliq, Passes, Bopreal, Lecap, Lefi, etc.) that They channel yields and Discipline actors.
Stabilization economic policy framework
We combine the approach of External restriction With that of Financing: When Capital account opening coexist with rates in pesos far superior to the expected depreciation, the bicycle (Carry Trade) -2016-2018 with Lebac; 2024-2025 with different instruments and bands-, leveraged for credibility rhetoric. (IMF; El País; BCRA).
Section 1
Continuity of elites: “Let’s change freedom progress”
Patricia Bullrich She was Minister of Security with Macri (2015-2019) and returns to the same position with Milei (2023). Federico Sturzeneggerpresident of the BCRA in 2015-2018, reappears in 2024 as Minister of Deregulation and Transformation of the State. Luis “Toto” CaputoMinister of Finance and then president of the BCRA Bajo Macri, is today Minister of Economy. Are Cross trajectories show Decision overlapping Between both periods. (Reuters; El País; Official Gazette; Reuters Chronology on Caputo).
Recent journalistic literature also describes the gravitation of the Santiago Caputo strategist-Ex Duran Barba-, central figure of Milei’s communicational architecture and relative by Luis Caputo and the businessman Nicolas Caputo-Amigo of the life of Mauricio Macri- (the nation; profile; Infobae, several), reinforcing the idea of clans and networks with privileged access to macro policy.
A severe reading of these continuities is proposed, emphasizing Patrimonial motivations and “cogobiernos” with support from large groups. We collect that critical hypothesis to contrast it with facts (decrees, appointments, series).
Section result: the names and trajectories show objective continuity; The debate is in Yeah That continuity explains for itself the results (We explore it in sections 3-5).
Section 2 – Continuity of government technologies: deregulation, decree and “shock”
He DNU 70/2023 Inaugurates the Milei cycle with deregulation cross of contracts, markets and state; the Base law Complete the scaffolding. (Official Gazette; El País). In Macri, the Accelerated financial openinghe according to Holdouts And the commitment to High rates route + capital income Delineate the “toolbox” -Red in the IMF ex post evaluation– that recognizes Vulnerabilities (dependence on volatile flows). (IMF 2021).
In both cases, the Promise of credibility HE outsourcing: With Macri, the anchor was External Debt + Lebac; With Milei, the Initial devaluation sequence (Dec 14 2023) -Invaluation of 118%in 2025 Band and Fiscal Disciplinemore instruments such as Bopreal To order commercial liabilities. (BCRA; Reuters). (The second and last complementary article continues tomorrow).
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Source: Ambito
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