Section 3 – Carry Trade, Lebac and the “Bicycle” yesterday and today
In 2016-2018, La Interest rate in pesos generated a Carry Trade Circuit that the IMF itself considers part of the framework that exacerbated vulnerabilities when global humor was reversed (IMF 2021). The financial and academic press documented Gains in dollars For “Timing-Perfect” positions and the role of Lebac as a vehicle. (Econstator; University repositories).
Under Milei, although the BCRA reduced rates throughout 2024, the arbitration It did not disappear; mutated form: exchange bands, passesTreasury titles and Bopreal (official guides), with episodes of real returns positive in dollars and bicycle reopening According to international press. (BCRA; El País, 2024; Reuters on Bopreal 2025).
The author proposes: since 2016 that “they came from the financial world to speculate with the bicycle.” Pointing out: a) the Structural incentive It exists when there is VS. Expected devaluation; b) attribute enrichment demands Case-on-Case tests. Here we limit ourselves to Document incentives and aggregate results.
Section 4 – IMF 2018 and Shock 2023-2025: two strategies, an Achilles heel
He SBA 2018 (U $ S57,000 million approved, IMF record) fails to stabilize expectations and end with Premature output and controls. (IMF; Reuters). IMF agreement with Argentina: On June 20, 2018, the IMF Executive Board approved the largest turn rights agreement in its history, supporting the economic program of Argentina.
In 2024-2025, Mileism rehearses the Cavallo 2001 reissue: “Zero Fiscal Deficit” And besides Disassembly of controls with exchange band; get Fiscal surplus and Commercial record In 2024, but he lived with Poverty jump and exchange pressures that have even required Treasury intervention (January-September 2025). (Reuters; AP; Reuters 2 SEP 2025).
Comparative lesson: In both cases, the bottleneck It is the fragility of the capital account and the political sensitivity of social costs.
Section 5 – Distributive results: inflation, activity and poverty
Independent series and monitoring show that the Initial shock Milei coexists with Poverty> 50% in 1T-2024 (UCA reported by check) and subsequent oscillations; At the same time, the government exhibits monthly inflation drop and surplus. (Check/UCA; Reuters; AP).
In the Macri cycle, the Adjustment with exchange delay and the 2018 Reversion They flowed into inflation and activity drop. The IMF and the BCRA record External vulnerability and Formation of external assets relevant in 2015-2019. (IMF; BCRA 2020).
We emphasize the “Fixed income licustment” and the Payment of costs for lower resources sectors; These diagnoses are consistent with literature on regressive effects of relative price shocks In bimonnear economies.
Section 6 – Socio -technical networks and shock governance
Applying Callon (1986)we map translation:
- Problematization: “Crisis of credibility / deficit / stagflation.”
- Interssement: Technocrats, consultants, economic media align Frames (“Cost today, benefit tomorrow”). L´intéressement It comes from French and is synonymous with “interposition.” It was first used by Michel Callon.
- Enrollment: Banks, funds, exporters, legislators.
- Mobilization: Instruments (Lebac/Bopreal), DNU/Bases Law, IMF agreements. (IMF; BCRA; Official Gazette).
The continuity of elites facilitates Repertorious recycling. Here, the “Node” actors (Caputo, Sturzenegger, Bullrich) function as translators that They standardize policies beyond the party sign. (Reuters; El País).
SECTION 7 – Continuity rhetoric: “The same, but faster”
Macri’s phrase – “We will go in the same direction, but as quickly as possible” (March 2019)- It is not a meme: condenses a Heuristics Policy (sequence speed) and a mandate That mileism radicalizes. (The chronicler). In terms of macro designthe speed shortcut exposes social layers at concentrated costs, with Backlash risk political before benefits materialize. (AP; Reuters 2025). In sociology, backlash anglicism refers to a strong adverse reaction to an idea, movement or product
We identify discursive continuity: “Import of macro experience”: Our fact contrast returns it plausible institutional, without attributing criminal intentions.
Conclusion
We show seven regularities:
- Repeated casts (Bullrich, Sturzenegger, Caputo) and networks that survive the alternation, confirmed by decrees/appointments. (Reuters; El País; Official Gazette).
- Family instruments: Opening/deregulation, nominal anchors and Financial vehicles High rotation (Lebac; Bopreal). (IMF; BCRA).
- Exposure to flows: When global or local humor changes, both strategies They suffer (2018; Episodes 2025). (IMF; Reuters).
- Mixed results: surpluses and Monthly disinflation They live with High poverty and recession At the beginning of the adjustment. (Reuters; AP; UCA/Check).
- “Shock/Speed” rhetoric as seal of continuity. (The chronicler).
- Network governance (Callon): La translation of financial-political interests Standardiza Answers, beyond party labels. (Callon).
- In aMbos Cycles The actors They cannot be simultaneously faithful to the country and private patrimonial accumulation (increase in DDJJ)- finds indirect support in the incentive structure (High rates, temporary cost/benefits gap) and in facts (continuity of elites and instruments). We do not affirm individual corruption without proof; Yeah We find structural alignments that replicate Financial winners and Social Losers In the short term.
In sum: Macri = Milei not by slogans, but for networks, tools and results. The difference It is not the coursebut the speed – “The same, but faster”- With identical Achilles heel: External vulnerability and social cost In the transition.
Director of doing.com.ar, YouTube channel: @DRPABLigani
Source: Ambito
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