In recent years, the Petroleum and Gas Industry It went from being a promise to a reality and today is in full expansion. The Gas production It is located above its 2004 record, while the of raw points to its 1998 historical maximums. In detail, after closing July with a level of production of 159 million m³/dthe average gas of the first semester reached 145.7 million m³/dovercoming the previous record of 142.9 million m³/d established in 2004.
Considering that it still has several months of high winter demand and that low season 2025 ends up being a record year.
In the front of rawproduction also grows strongly from the implementation of the Duplicate project In April, although Argentina will not achieve record average production this year. In July, production exceeded the barrier of 800 KBBL/D (806.2 KBBL/D)with an increase of 7.3% compared to the daily average of April, carrying the average of 2025 to 766.5 kbbl/dstill 80.4 kbbl/d Below the 1998 record. However, no matter how new maximums already seem impossible this year, the foundations could be laid so that 2026 becomes the record year.
Shale revolution and key infrastructure
When analyzing the factors behind this expansion, the unconventional production It emerges as the only growth engine. Production National conventional fell 6.2% Since December, drilling the threshold of 300 KBBL/D (293.7 KBBL/D)and the Tight production He collapsed 29.7% even just 3.7 kbbl/d.
In contrast, the Shale grew 13.7% So far this year until 508.8 kbbl/dmore than compensating for the falls of the other sources. It should be noted that Shale Production jumped 15.2% from the minimum of April, by the time the industry expected the entry into operation of Double To accelerate the rhythm.
This also reflects the sector dependence on the Neuquina basin. Being the only one that grows in the country and there is no idle capacity for duct evacuation, producers chose to maintain stable production levels instead of resorting to more expensive evacuation alternatives, such as truck transport. For that reason, the production stagnated during the first four months of the year.
The situation changed with the entry of Doublewho released near 220 KBBL/D.. In this context, Neuquén could carry its production of 529.3 KBBL/D. about 700 KBBL/D. By 2026, when it would go into operation VMOS (adding 180 kbbl/d to 4q26 and 550 kbbl/d to 2h27).
Similarly, gas production is already benefiting from the expansion of the PERITO MORENO GAS pipelinewhich raised the transport capacity of 14 to 21 million m³/dand of the Partial reversal of the Northern Gas Pipeline (15 million m³/d).
In the future, the Total reversal of the latter (19 million m³/d in total), the Expansion of Expert Moreno to 35 million m³/d (currently in tender) and LNG projects They will support production growth. It should be remembered that the latter could add up to 28 million tons per yearwhich would require approximately Additional 140 million m³/d of gas production. That is to say, almost double the current production of Argentina.
How to invest in Muerta Vaca
In this context, it is worth asking if there is a way of benefit from these developments. The indirect way is evident: all Argentines will benefit them that the industry continues to grow and export hydrocarbons to generate currencies.
Having a source of additional relevance in addition to the field, and that is also based on a less seasonal and climate dependent industry, should introduce a stability greater to the country. Not to mention if it is considered that the Self -supply It limits the exits of dollars per importance of energy, as observed in 2022 after the beginning of the War of Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, the Impact on employment It is already, and will continue, substantial: each direct job in the industry means approximately Additional 6 for indirect services.
Now, is it possible Build directly What happens in Vaca Muerta? Yeah. The investments They are a vehicle to do it. The market of bonds and actions Provides opportunities to expose themselves to the companies that operate there. Logically, as in any investment, you must be cautious and inquire about them. Not for operating in Neuquén a company will have a promising future. It will depend on your expansion plans and your financial health.
In this sense, there is a number of companies that are attractiveespecially from the punishment applied on the eve of the elections. These are YPF, Energy Vista and Gas Transporter del Sur. All of them have extremely auspicious growth prospects, with attractive businesses in terms of profitability.
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YPF: a paradigm shift from the arrival of Horacio Maríndetaching from mature fields to focus on unconventional oilwhich should expand margins relevant. In addition, it seeks to accelerate its sala production and is one of the greatest drivers of the projects of LNG.
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Energy view: acquired the assets of Petronas Argentina and took a dimension that is not reflected in its valuation. Today is traded at levels of March 2024, despite the fact that its quarterly production doubled and its Ebitda grew 1.4x. With its current ratios, it looks like a Clear Buy.
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South gas transporter (TGS): It was the only one to present offer for the extension of the PERITO MORENO GAS pipelinewhich will allow you to operate Additional 14 million m³/d (About the current 21) Once the works have been completed, in about 18 months.
PPI Credit Team Leader Corporate
Source: Ambito
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