In September 2018, Luis Toto Caputo left the presidency of the Central Bank under pressure from the IMF, after burning reservations and borrowing the country. Today, seven years later, he returns to the center of the scene with the same tools.
There are seven years in which the economist and operator of the financial markets to which Mauricio Macri considered essential, left the presidency of the BCRA in September 2018, under the pressure of (IMF). As well as his predecessor and current teammate Federico Sturzenegger, He had been fired A week after the frustrated first macro agreement with the IMF. Responsible for the strong indebtedness of the JXC governmenthe had taken his first step as Secretary and Minister of Finance. He had been fighting with the IMF for weeks that he asked to limit the BCRA interventions to let the weight be devalued, everything that the market arranges.
There were IMF restrictions to the use of reserves and interventions with future dollarso that the weight should be allowed to be devalued and part of the bulky fiscal deficit. Today could do the same to liquefy the deferred fiscal deficit in titles in the hands of banks, but there are interests that prevent it. The minister tried again, as in 2018, to ask them to use more dollars to avoid greater devaluation. Seven years Caputo had begun to intervene with direct sales of 15,000 million dollars (Milei Dixit: “Caputo smoked 15,000 million dollars”).
Toto wanted the new agreement to give him more flexibility to intervene, because there was a risk that, when the Lebac weights expired, they would go to dollars.
One of the ministers said of Caputo: “He is firm. He has experience to face the attacks of outside and inside.” The Messi of Finance slid as now, a hypothesis of conspiracy of politicians, bankers and businessmen. Neither was firm nor conspiracy, The reservations had made ointment For the facts to be committed.
Caputo should face several judicial causeslike the one investigated by prosecutor Carlos Rívolo about his alleged hidden society in the United States (Rívolo). At least, he breathed quietly, after several cases were filed, such as the one involved in his wife in the purchase of the future dollar.
September 2025 and September 2018? The same actors and the misfortunes?
Yesterday the BCRA sold dollars to calm the exchange pressure because a reserve bleeding has probably been activated until October 26. Fixed deadlines in pesos are overcoming, and tenders need to roll 100%; or lace and rates have to climb to heaven. The tension grows because the dollar broke the roof of the band and the BCRA compromised sales for US $ 53 million. Wholesale inflation accelerated to 3.1% in August, the highest value in more than a year (INDEC). There is an extended disappointment in the stock market, the S&P Merval index collapsed and removed all the accumulated brokenness since the Milei government took. Sovereign ADRs and bonds crumbled up to 4%.
If we look at the recent history of Argentina, there is a pattern impossible to ignore, The same faces cannot change the same results. Milei promised innovation, but I ended up reproducing the same errors as Macri with a nuances difference, with volume barter and speed. Accrued deficit (Milei) instead of cash deficit (Macri), inflation (Macri) from least to greatest, (milei) from highest to lowest-footsteps, debt that grows and poor that increases in both cases. The continuity of actors guarantees that failures are even anthropologically structural, non -accidental.
The Milei cycle confirms it clearly; Even if the rhetoric changes and no longer insults in your speeches, the rules of the game remain intact. There is no political magic or secret formula; The same ideology produces the same results, again and again. Waiting for something else is, in simple words, absurd.
The lesson is brutal but simple; As long as we do not change the actors, the institutions and the “for institutions”, the incentives and the structures that allow a few to define everyone’s destiny, the country will continue to be trapped in a cycle that combines grandiloquent promises with predictable failures. The new thing that matters are the namesbut also the real changes that break the historical repetition of crisis.
In a nutshell; More of the same, with the same faces, remains failure.
Doctor of Political Science, on YouTube: @DRPABLigani, in X: @Pabitigani
Source: Ambito
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