The keys to the short withholdings applied by the government and the doors that opens in the exchange market.
In the volatile Argentine exchange market, where the expectations of investors are interwoven with the shadows of political uncertainty, the recent temporal elimination of retentions to agricultural exports has unleashed a currency torrent that could transform the short -term panorama. But, as in so many chapters of the local economic chronicle, This bonanza is as promising as precarious. Last Friday, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) was forced to sell 678 million dollars On the ceiling of the exchange band – fed in 1,475 pesos per dollar – an intervention that underlines the fragility of the current scheme. Today, with a daily average transactions that around 400 million dollars, the market faces the perspective of absorbing one orestimated ferta at 6,300 million dollars in days of days. The question that resonates in the halls of the City Porteña is not whether the flow will come, but how – who – will capitalize it before it evaporates.
This liquidity injection, driven by the Decree 682/2025 which suspended withholdings until October 31 or the achievement of a quota of 7,000 million dollars, sand exhausted in just 72 hours. Grain exporters responded with a speed that reveals both the efficiency of the sector and the urgency of the government. 90% of the affidavits of the latest sales must be settled within three business days. In a market that operates with modest volumes, this “flood” pressed down the official exchange rate that quoted around 1,360 pesos for sale this Thursday.
However, the origin of this measure is not in a long -term strategic vision for the agro -export sector, but in a reactive response to the exchange storm that hit the last weeks. The decision not to accumulate reservations In the second quarter – a period in which the BCRA could have bought currencies near the lower band— It was one of the catalysts of the run of the last weeks. It was not the only factor: the disarmament of fiscal letters (Lefi) exacerbated the imbalance in the peso market.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and the director of the BCRA, Federico Furiase, tried to counteract this perception with statements in their usual streaming space, “the three anchors.” Caputo said that the government is willing to “Sell until the last dollar to hold the band’s roof“While Furiase invoked a”Fire Power“Of 22,000 million dollars, enough to withdraw the entire circulating in pesos and defend the scheme. The intention was double: project technical capacity and political will to contain the exchange rate. But the market, skeptical after months of erratic adjustments and changes in the regulations, responded the next day with purchases that resulted in a record intervention of 678 million dollars. The credibility of the economic team, already battered by previous volatility, was even more compromised. In a context of expectations anchored in distrust, lSo words lose weight in the face of concrete actions.
Now, with retentions at zero, the pivot stage towards a window of opportunity. The fiscal incentive for the sector was substantial: a saving of about 1,000 million dollars in export rights is estimated, a figure that coincides exactly with the loss of collection for the treasure. It is no accident; The measure prioritized immediate currency injection over budgetary balance. According to the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf), this direct cost is equivalent to 0.15% of GDP by 2025, eroding 46% of the fiscal surplus projected in the 2026 budget (0.3% of GDP).
The rush of the initiative also exposes its double edge. By forcing the liquidation within such a short period, the government has advanced income that could have stabilized the market in October-electoral and preventive dollarization.
Faced with this imminent surplus, the market cries out for a strategic correction: the opportunistic purchase of dollars by the Treasury or BCRA. Both entities have tools, but with nuances that illustrate the tensions of the current scheme. The treasure, with deposits equivalent to 12 billion pesos in the BCRA, could intervene directly using available funds, without issuing a new monetary base. In fact, partial data on Tuesday – last available – show an increase of 85 million dollars in their foreign exchange, with a low equivalent in pesos, which suggests that it has already started discrete purchases. This opacity in the reporting of treasure interventions – a practice criticized for its lack of transparency in the management of public funds – contrasts with the exchange rule that the BCRA was self -imposed, which only authorizes purchases in the lower band to avoid inflationary pressures.
If the BCRA assumed the role, it should emit weights to acquire the currencies. In addition, the subsequent sales of the central would be restricted to the band’s ceiling, limiting its flexibility. In contrast, the treasure could sell freely, as it did in the previous electoral despite the initial promises of how the BCRA only do it on the band of the band.
Beyond the financial market, The real economy stopped growing in FebruaryGDP contracted 0.1% in the second quarter (INDEC) and all subsequent indicators point to a technical recession.
The expectations of an adjustment to the exchange scheme – supposed, at most, until after October 26 – have not disappeared; They have postponed. In an election year, the official defeat in Buenos Aires on September 7 fired the country at 1,500 basic points and sank sovereign bonds by 16%, remembering that macro stability depends on the perception of continuity. The United States support – with Scott Besent, secretary of the Treasury, negotiating a 20,000 million dollars SWAP offers a mattress, but do not replace net reserves.
On this board, The economic team of Caputo and Bausili travels without margin for errors. The loss of credibility – forced in reactive interventions and opacity – amplifies each stumbling, turning the management of the coming weeks into a challenge greater than the mere electoral result. The lesson is clear: this surplus of dollars is not a luxury, but an imperative need. Buying them today not only strengthens the balance of the BCRA, but would help reconstruct confidence in a program that, despite its advances in disinflation and surplus, still sails in turbulent waters. Failing in it could precipitate not only a devaluation, but a setback in the fragile recovery that Argentina longs for. The market observes; The time, inexorable, urges.
Christian Buter
Source: Ambito
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