Argentina and the US They occupy the center of the scene. The Recent financial volatilityhe “Whatver it takes”By Scott Besent and the Meeting between Trump and Milei They revived the debate on a possible commercial agreement, with echoes of the 90s and the famous “carnal relations”. Today, the bilateral link could be transformed into a strategic agreement for bothmore pragmatic than passion: a real marriage for convenience.
The profits of a commercial agreement can be analyzed from two approaches:
Two indicators linked to these approaches serve to evaluate the opportunities for an agreement:
According to the complementarity index, the US exports -A country very different from Argentina- were the ones that were the most Argentine imports complement in the last 14 yearssurpassing Brazil, Colombia, Chile, China, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The American productive structure is the most appropriate to cover Argentina’s import needs.
In addition, the US was the most complementary in all greater complexity industriesfrom electronic and electrical manufactures (as servers for data centers and key supplies for the energy sector) until Medium Technology Manufactures (Machines and industrial components used in agricultural machinery and industrial equipment). Only in the Sectors of low technological complexity There are more complementary countries.
The benefits also reach the Intraindustrial trade: Despite having a different profile, the US produces many of the varieties that Argentina consumes, located only behind Brazil and Uruguay in industries such as dairy, oils and vegetable fats.
The US could also win an agreement. Argentina provides you minerals, aluminum concentrates and chemical compounds for the pharmaceutical industry And it is the second that produces the most varieties of those that the US consumes in South America.
In conclusiona commercial agreement would be beneficial for both countries. The complementarity arises from different productive profiles: the United States provides Technology Intensive Goods as input for the Argentine industry, while Argentina contributes Key supplies for the American pharmaceutical industry. In addition, both could take advantage of a greater Intraindustrial tradeexchanging varieties of dairy, oils and vegetable fats.
More than carnal relationshipsit is about Cold but placid scene of a marriage for convenience.
Director of Macroefinancieros Riegos Analysis of the Central Bank of Mexico
Source: Ambito
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