After the Buenos Aires electoral cimbronazo, the US rescue and the record of agriculture gave air to the government, but political doubts persist.
After the elections in the province of Buenos Aires, the Argentine market and the economic situation crossed a level of volatility rarely seen. The defeat of the ruling In the most relevant district of the country, it triggered very negative expectations and, at the same time, it showed management errors -As the lack of accumulation of reserves in the second quarter and the elimination of Lefis-feeding an even more pessimistic atmosphere.
In just two weeks, the share market collapsed around 25%the bonds followed the same trend and the country risk jumped from 880 basic points to almost 1,500 to September 19just ten business days after the elections. As if that were not enough, the market began to validate a sliding above MLC around 4%. It was, without a doubt, the more complex period in political and economic matters from the Assumption of the Government in December 2023.
He September 20in the midst of volatility and pessimism, alarms were lit with an unexpected rumor: The United States would come to the aid of the government of Javier Milei. And so it was. He North American Treasury Secretary publicly confirmed in his X account that would be launched Unconditional support measures to Argentina. The effect on the markets was immediate: the bonds climbed about 20%he Country risk collapsed from 1,450 to almost 1,100 points in a few hours and the Actions registered an increase close to 18%.
The economic measures of the agreement were in line with the anticipated: contingent credit linesa Swap for 20,000 million dollars And, in addition, the possibility that the American treasure Buy Argentine debt in primary and secondary markets.
From the local, an unexpected but key announcement was added: zero withholdings for the export of raw materialswhich generated an immediate response from the field. In just three days, Affidavit statements abroad (DJVE) reached the top of 7,000 million dollars.
What does the market expect?
In less than a month, the Argentine market traveled all emotional states: Extreme pessimism and the Total uncertainty still marked optimism by him external support. Today, the Economic Front looks more stablewith the expectation that the Treasury begins to accumulate reservations Thanks to the strong liquidation of the agriculture and thus cover the debt payments of the next semester without shock.
What remains an unknown for the future is the exchange schemethat being close to the upper band limits the margin of maneuver and could condition the continuous purchase of currencies.
However, the Doubts persist on the political level. The government should go to the basesmake a real Rasa tabula and Bridge with key actors such as Mauricio Macri and other leaders that were fundamental in their arrival to power. Only then can you anchor expectations in the political field and arrive with greater chances of achieving a victory in the October 26 elections.
* Partner in AT Investments
Source: Ambito
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