The week left Powerful images: The president’s squeery Javier Milei With his US pair, Donald Trumpthe promises of support of the US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, and the wink of International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is understandable that, in an exhausted country, any external support gesture arouses the illusion of a “calm” to the October elections.
But if we measure for facts – and not for speeches – Argentina continues in a High risk zone: Deep drop in activity, depressed consumption, reserves drainage, loud electoral defeat of the ruling party and a country risk that, even with breath, reflects political fragility. That is the photo.
The trip and the small print
The presidential trip essentially sought a political and financial armor. He succeeded in the symbolic plane: there was a basement, praise and the promise of “All the necessary support.” However, the noun remains blurred: What is the small print? In what deadlines and under what conditions would disbursements be activated? How much of that eventual oxygen will be really new and how much a repap of previous commitments? The opacity is not a detail; Without clear rules, relief is more like a postponement than a solution.
The relevant question is not if the market humor It can improve from here to October – he can – but if that humor corrects the base problems. The answer, for now, is no. An economy that mainly adjusts with external debt, without a credible growth, investment and exports program, buy time at a growing cost.
We already know that movie: “emergency” dollars are diluted in months if the foundations do not change. And the decisive foundation is the Ability to generate currencies in a sustained way.
Triple political, economic and social tension
It should be said without euphemisms: the so -called “model” faces a Triple political, economic and social tension. Politics, for its parliamentary weakness and its recent electoral setback. Economic, because The recession became longer and more deep than expected. Social, because the adjustment sticks where it hurts the most: employment, income and consumption. None of this improves because a favorable tweet raises or the cash with liquidation falls for a few days.
In front of this picture, the Opposite leadership has a temptation as old as harmful: to celebrate the adversity of the Executive. It is a moral and strategic error. In Argentina, when a government is going wrong, the invoice is paid by society, not politicians.
No one should be happy for a jump of the dollar or a run: they are signals of deterioration that end in more poverty. The place to reward or punish rumbos is the urn; Converting the crisis into partisan trophy is short -term myopia.
What would make a difference
What would really make the difference in this context is reorder priorities and sincere the program:
First, anchor expectations with a verifiable and less grandiloquence fiscal path; The market tolerates risk, not permanent uncertainty.
Second, activate a Pragmatic export plan that simplifies regulations, reduces logistics costs and tax predictability to the tradable sector.
Third, open credit for working capital in SMEs aimed at selling outside; every genuine dollar that enters reduces a debt dollar.
Room, Strengthen basic consensus in Congress To shield reforms that do not depend on the weather of the week.
External support can be useful as a bridge, never as a substitute for the own floor. If the bridge leads to Barranco, we will only be postponing the blow. Argentina does not need a new epic, but a old normality: Clear rules, fiscal discipline, institutions that work and a policy that understands that crises are not celebrated or denied; They are resolved. October will order preferences. I hope you also order priorities.
Professor of the Faculty of Business Sciences of the Universidad Austral (Buenos Aires headquarters)
Source: Ambito
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