However, the downside for markets from these fairly comfortable elections could come from a quick decision in favor of a Russian oil embargo that would exacerbate inflationary pressures and economic slowdown (stagflation scenario) in Europe.
But the real problems are not immediate. Is the result of these elections clear enough to anticipate that the parliamentary elections in junein France, will they give President Macron a majority that will allow him to apply his pro-business and pro-European policies desired by the markets?
It seems dangerous at this point to take it for granted.
In the long run, regardless of the geography of power, the main constraint on economic policies will be sustained inflation. It is not at all clear that the economic programs on which the president and deputies are elected have been built on this reality, which is becoming more and more evident. And France is no exception in this regard.
Member of the Strategic Investment Committee of Carmignac
Source: Ambito
