But there are times when it is prudent to wait for the waters to flow more clearly. The call “wait and ese”. Of course this is an active pause. What instrument serves me to wait? And which ones do I follow closely to get out of this pause? These are the two questions we have to ask ourselves.
Not many days ago Dollars MEP, Cash With Liquidation and informal, strongly pierced the $200 floor and fell around 20%, weighed down by a definitive agreement with the IMF and an apparent course of action agreed between the parties.
That was the first impact. It didn’t last long. We know we have a lot to do to get the economy back on the right track. Putting the bell on the cantankerous cat of inflation and controlling devaluation expectations are some of the most urgent.
This initial drop in the value of the North American currency in pesos was followed by a rise that this week is already materializing in values between $205 and $210. The obvious request of the IMF is to unify the price of the dollar, that the official tend to converge with the other prices. Unfortunately, the path to follow to achieve this is not so obvious, nor has it been explained by the Government yet.
This does not mean that the dollar will skyrocket. A gradual route (gradual for Argentina) is foreseen -for the moment-. The dollars from agriculture will continue to provide their balm for a few more months and the industry -which has no financing- will sell dollars to continue operating.
A similar situation occurs with the fight against inflation. The change in prices for March marked 6.7%, in what became the highest month in the last 20 years. Again, the action plan or the so-called national agreement are not clearly seen. From abroad, we do not receive greater certainties either, the US has already turned its monetary policy and embarked on a small but decisive rate hike, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not seem to have an end in the near future and in China the confinement has deepened strict.
What to do in these cases: Wait and se (wait and see)
Waiting must be active. Not only because of our quality of investments, but because the high level of Argentine inflation demands it. A very interesting alternative is to place the money in caution. Simplifying, it is a kind of loan that we make to another, through the stock market. That counterparty offers as collateral instruments such as bonds, shares or CEDEARs that will be executed in case of non-compliance, with which this strategy provides a lot of security.
The recommended thing is to have a short-term bond and renew it. In this way, in the face of any downturn in the market, we can exit without any penalty. Thus, we can get a rate that can be around 35% (within two days) and 38% (within one week). It is true that a fixed term can offer a couple of more points of interest, but it will not allow you to leave before an investment opportunity that arises in the market. You will lose dynamism and the return difference will be minimal.
What to watch while I wait
The first alternative comes from the hand of bonds in dollars such as the GD29 and the GD30. Both are foreign law, which provides an additional guarantee. They accrue interest on a semi-annual basis and have an IRR that exceeds 27%. They have a large daily trading volume, so it is quite easy to get in and out of this position.
Looking for a bit more risk and therefore aiming for a more aggressive earnings profile, mirgor it is also an asset that we should keep an eye on, waiting for a good price or entry point.
This firm has two of its main assets in diversification and exports. It has a strong foothold in the automotive sector, with the production of air conditioning equipment and steering boxes, but it also targets consumption and the mobile telephony segment, being a supplier to giants such as Samsung. In addition, it is an increasingly important player in the agricultural sector.
Although it is a player that focuses on local consumption, it is proposed to export between US$30 million and US$50 million annually.
Its stock is listed under the ticket MIRG on the BYMA and it is a role that will be boosted by the reactivation of local and international “post-pandemic” consumption.
Director of Bell and Specialist in Market Ethics
Source: Ambito
