If the government redefined the debt, the blue dollar would automatically shoot up to sky-high values. The 120% gap that we had a few months ago would be the floor. We would have a much higher gap, with which the economy would be virtually stopped and we would enter a recession.
In parallel, in this scenario, no one would finance public spending. The tenders made by the government would be deserted. And in that context I would be obliged to broadcast without pause. In this situation, the result would be that to the inflation that would cause an exorbitant rise in the blue dollar, we would have to add the inflation that the Central Bank itself would create due to an enormous emission of pesos to finance the treasury. So, we see really low chances of default. We can assess whether the government is operationally good or bad. But he doesn’t eat glass. And this he knows.
At the time the last re-profiling occurred, the context was different. We had foreign currency income, we had the backing of the IMF, and we had disbursements. But today we do not have all these elements. So, we see it as extremely difficult for the government to default on the debt in pesos. Within this context, the investment scenario is also volatile. It is not that it is risk-free because the market today is torn between being a buyer or a seller. With the interventions made by the Central Bank buying Boncer and Lecer on Thursday and Friday of last week, it was clear that it does not want to default, it does not want to reshape. But you have to finish convincing the market.
We believe that to the extent that the government begins to pay a rate or premium on the CER in the next auctions, it will begin to take account of these issues and will begin to buy short bonds. We do not believe that he will buy bonds that mature beyond the first quarter of 2023, that is, before the electoral contest begins in earnest. And there is much to gain there. Because today you can put together a portfolio with a maximum duration of 4 or 5 months with CER+5, something very interesting. If we add to that that we are buying short bonds with low parities, the rebound of the portfolio, the recovery of what was lost, we would have it quickly, precisely, because we are talking about short-term bonds and their prices will begin to resemble the pair.
Within that context the investments in pesos, knowing that we can have the first 30 days of volatility and the second 30 days of recovery, we see it as viable. But never with placements exceeding the first quarter of 2023. Obviously, we also see that the MEP dollar could continue to increase. That’s why, In the Fund that we advise (AdCap Wise Capital Growth) we are increasing the position in MEP in an accelerated manner. And it is possible that the linked dollar will also begin to give us greater satisfaction. Perhaps not now, but starting in August/September, which is when the dollar income from the harvest begins to decline.
President of Wise Capital.
Source: Ambito
