Events that simply MUST NOT HAPPEN are frequently heard, or in other words, their probability of occurrence is extremely low. Any planto have a chance of succeeding, you must start from the REALITY, leaving aside the illusion of immediacy. To exemplify:
INVESTMENTS: The only ones that can arrive “immediately” are the purely speculative. Those who took advantage of the happy “Carry Trade”, a tremendous mistake that cost us tens of billions of dollars, with a President wondering daily “why don’t genuine investments come?”. The unusually simple answer is that, having a double-digit return in dollars, there is no investment whose return can compete with it, obviously considering that the investment carries risk, vs. the “Carry Trade” that was automatic profit… A real nonsense.
The Investment Funds, they will take time to trust and come. There may be occasional “border” operations, taking advantage of “bargains” that bad economic times always generate. But those that are usually in Brazil, Chile, Colombia to name a few, it will take no less than two or four years to observe and see how real and firm the new course is.
Not to mention the Pension Fundswhich manage the largest portion of financial investments in the world: these will arrive after 5/10 years of “good behavior” with luck.
Then, Who can we count on to invest? THE SAME ONES THAT ARE FIGHTED TODAY: Argentine Businessmen and Foreign companies that ALREADY OPERATE IN THE COUNTRY. For these, who already know the “terrain” it is possible to invest and seek revenge and profitability, but today they are “punished” for seeking it. I wonder how they will pay better salaries, how they will invest if they are punished not only with words but also with taxes, or frankly hostile attitudes…
They are the chance, and there are savings in the hands of Argentines abroad that represent more than half of an annual Argentine GDP. Those, which are punished with aggravated Personal Property Taxes, or on Wealth or the alleged “Extraordinary income”. Because the leaders do not understand that IT DOESN’T WORK THAT WAY. With the club, no. What if we try the carrot? The message “against capital” must be read “against the people, the workers, society”. That is the true result, and I encourage you to discuss it with whoever comes forward. I am sure that 90% of the readers of this article already know it.
WEIGHTS vs. DOLLARS: any plan, must start from the basis that trust is not instant. In full convertibility, 1996, when it was very successful, deposits were half in pesos and half in dollars. The savings currency of the Argentines is the dollarYou don’t have to go far to understand it. The peso is the transactional currency. A currency exchange by itself will not make a difference.
It takes a Integral plan. Few remember that both the Austral Plan and the Convertibility Plan came with a package of measures to reduce suffocating public spending, which would later run amok to end up annihilating both. ALWAYS, it is fiscal discipline. Purely monetary plans only buy time to balance public finances.
EXCHANGE SITUATION: There is no alternative about it: we must end the ridiculous Stocks. The question of the Stock (of problematic debts) vs. the flow, to achieve a transitory peace. Without reservations, and without external credit, there will be no other than to face the situation WITH WHAT IS.
There is a lot of wealth in Argentina, in a world that has suddenly become demanding of our commodities, and the saddest thing is that we are despising this “momentum”, which hopefully will continue.
We need open policies, which receive the capital with open arms, a Flexible Capital Market with structures that facilitate initiatives, and a “debt” of a Bank System that turn to private business instead of living off the public sector. There is so much to do.
And it doesn’t take so many years to be better! The improvement, once it starts, generates a growing well-being. It is only a matter of doing what Ortega y Gasset said 80 years ago: ARGENTINES, TO THE THINGS!
President FIRST CAPITAL GROUP (@miguelarrigoni).
Source: Ambito
