Martin Guzman surely he fulfilled the task entrusted to him, but the economy collides with politics, politics is polis pueblo and what the people think about the agreement with the fund weighs on society.
Politics also gave an opinion and the ruling coalition was divided due to this international agreement, having a society with many problems, with hunger and great poverty, the agreement would condition more hunger and more adjustment for the people. The delay in closing the agreement was attempted to be justified by the flexibility to adjust the blessed fiscal deficit in a way that is not shock, but rather adjust it to bring it to zero at some point. This would allow to comply with a campaign slogan that said as a mandate “you will not spend more than what you earn”
Added to the economic impact of what the IMF recommended to apply to the Argentine economy, the impact of Russia’s war with Ukraine also generates great uncertainty because prices shoot up. Energy, especially gas, becomes more expensive and out of all budget and that is where the first frictions between what is energy and the Ministry of Economy begin. Coordinating all the areas to be efficient is really a difficult task. Industry, commerce, energy and the economy. In the future, it should be thought to be able to articulate things in the same way in the ministries, but the energy ministry is beginning to have the dilemma of whether or not to increase the RATES and review energy subsidies.
The central bank It has the dilemma of raising the rate or not and maintaining the balance in the exchange rate, the DOLLAR, and the different types. Fundamentally to keep exchange rate gaps under control. The hard task of stabilizing variables with a difficult choice to devalue or not to devalue, That is the question.
The economy also depends on being able to refinance the debt taken on, and the debt we have today is the one adjusted by CER and we have already seen some imbalances in the bonds.
The economy and politics do not always have a course, a concrete decision and this generates serious problems that have not improved but have worsened over time. As color data Silvina Batakis (the Greek) is the second female minister, the first was. felisa miceli and she is a strong woman, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, having accompanied Daniel Scioli. in the Ministry of Economy of the province of Buenos Aires. Some remember that the countryside does not have a good relationship with the countryside, which is another great instrument of the economy: how are we going to manage exports and imports? What is the export exchange rate and what are the withholdings to apply and what is the international price of commodities?
What seems incredible is that a political decision triggers such an exorbitant price in the exchange rate that it is obviously EXAGGERATED AND SATIRIZED and modifies people’s lives so much, why? Because your salary is getting smaller in the face of growing inflation. What you buy if you can buy it, what you consume, your services all have higher growth than real wages. Retirement and subsidies are only enough to keep from starving.
People don’t make it to the end of the month it’s true, but those who used to make it to the end of the month now have less and less because inflation DEVOTES them.
With the increase in the exchange rate we have what we call at some point a perfect storm because all the variables are very, very difficult to find a concrete solution and a SHOCK of confidence is needed. The ministers who “the market wants” but keep in mind that the last ones did not generate that TRUST .
The market was bullish on debt restructuring and a quick deal with the IMF. But that confidence was gradually being lost, causing the price of sovereign debt bonds to fall to more than half of their original price and triggering the country risk, which is one of the thermometers of confidence.
The other factor often called a tailwind was the price of commodities. This was extremely encouraging due to competitive prices and raw materials, but the war generated great ups and downs.
Let’s keep in mind that the position of Minister of the Economy sets a pace to follow. The last ministers are not people who have a great reputation, but a career as civil servants or academic levels according to the function is enough. Let’s remember the election in the previous government that after 15 days appointed an economist who did not have much friction with politics and if on TV programs.
The story highlights only a few from the year 2000 so as not to go so far back, and as in happy Sunday without repeating and without blowing MINISTERS OF ECONOMY OF THE ARGENTINE REPUBLIC:
Jose Luis Machinea – Ricardo Lopez Murphy – Domingo Cavallo (2 times) -Remes Lenicov – Roberto Lavagna – Felisa Miceli – Miguel Peirano – Martin Lousteau – Carlos Fernandez (2008/9) – Amado Boudou – Guido Lorenzino – Axel Kicillof – Alfonso Prat Gay – NIcolás Dujovne – Hernán Lacunza – Martín Guzmán – Silvina Batakis.
Some are well-known, but all of us, when remembering, associate them with something in particular, a phrase, an event, an achievement, but they have to remain in our memory to give value to their work and judge them as part of the country.
We haven’t had those great renowned economists for a long time, above all those who still sound today in the Ministry of Economy and who are constantly talked about.
Some of these officials are taken as fuses, functional in that period to perform a task. Sometimes it is difficult to have an economy minister who does the things that have to be done because that generates a political cost and the majority does not want to assume it.
No one escapes the political cost and for that a solid leadership in economic policies is needed, the great makers of today’s economy were never Minister of Economy, they were President of the central bank, other organizations or large external consultants. But every time they are asked to intercede, the parchment of demands is enormous, which is why they never arrive, despite the rumors, every time a vacancy is generated.
The Ministry of Economy controls a board of operations, because there are many variables to take into account and it also depends on the reaction of what is called markets, which is neither more nor less than the will of many and includes the decisions made by people of On foot, among others, it is also taken by large funds. But most of the market is created by people who want to invest, not so much speculate.
The power of ordinary people is seen, for example, in the need for coverage in dollars, buying what they are allowed, there were 1.5 million people.
Possibly when the economy of the countries works, the Ministry of Economy is one of the most important people in the country. when it doesn’t work, because the costs or the applied formulas don’t show results, that minister becomes one of those ministers remembered for doing hard things. As an example, his name is even used, as happened with RODRIGAZO, recalling Celestino Rodriguez where he had to make a very important adjustment within the great adjusters. We also have REMES LENICOV who was there before LAVAGNA to accommodate a bit to that Argentine who came from a crisis with the dollars and is the father of the PESIFICATION.
Moments where there was a great economic recession caused by the political and social crisis and a transitional president. The economy dominates center stage and this is the big million dollar question. Is it the economy or politics that rules?
If you have to do what you have to do, who bears the political cost, I believe that the economy’s final destination is to equate the variables and achieve it
The economy tends to liquefy peso liabilities as a balancing tool, in Argentina we are used not only to devaluations, sometimes even to confiscations and sometimes to what we call corralito.
In the speech of that year 2001, the minister told us that there was an electronic way of moving funds, a visionary 20 years earlier encouraged us to use the card, but as we already spoke with many colleagues, Argentina operates in a basically informal economy charging those who can as they can.
So friends. It doesn’t matter which side of politics you’re on because what matters in this country is the economy, the direction the economy is taking and how many of us it can generate well-being and definitively include us.
Source: Ambito
