The official dollar is around $140 and the dollar bag around the $290, this implies a gap greater than 100%. This invites exporters to retain merchandise, and importers to hurry to import, in order to have merchandise at a good price. Importers can only import in 2022 70% more than imported in 2020 or 5% more than imported in 2021, whichever is less. This implies that imports are not called to grow, the level of activity and investment will not be able to increase in this context. If we add to this that exports will be delayed, the country will hardly be able to grow.
It is ridiculous that in this tangle of regulations the tourist dollar is in $255below the alternative dollars and, of that total, 45% is a perception of Profits that is taken into account of the payment of profits in May 2023. The perception of Profits is 45% of the value of the dollar, therefore would be around $63.
What is the Qatari dollar?
To travel abroad we should make this account: the ticket is paid in dollars to $255. Of that total, $63 It is an advance of Earnings, which you can discount in the next exercise, with which the price you have left is $192 (arises from taking the solidarity dollar of $255 and subtracting the advance payment of profits from $63).
If when I go to pay the ticket I sell alternative dollars that are in $300I will have a profit of $45 (arises from taking the value of the alternative dollars and subtracting it from the solidarity dollar $255)
If the solidarity dollar is worth $255 and the rest $63which are on account of Profits, and $45 which is the profit for selling saved dollars, the value of the dollar to travel abroad remains in $147. What is said a bargain.
With this dollar, trips to the Qatar World Cup 2022the sale of tourism services in the last 12 months is located at US$4,639 millionis a sum greater than everything we pay as interest in dollars of the debt in the same term.
If the Government continues with a low exchange rate, we project for the entire year 2023 disbursements of US$ 7,000 million for trips abroad. This shows that the exchange rate is low and that Qatar is very close for many football fans.
The soybean dollar: what will happen?
The Government wants to encourage the countryside to sell soybeans and thus earn foreign exchange. From our point of view there is little money to enter. During the year 2022, the affidavits of sales abroad would amount to 18 million tons of soybeans.
In the 2020/21 campaign, 40.3 million tons were exported, this year we do not believe that this figure will be reached, with a lot of luck some additional 17 million tons could be sold until the end of the year, which at an international price of U$ S 600 a ton, could generate an income of US$10.2 billion, this with all the wind in favor.
As the foreign exchange market is very restrictive, with a price of the dollar around $140 and withholdings of 33%, the soybean dollar today stands at $93.80.
The government would be thinking (it is just one version) of a $190 soybean dollar, this would be a 103% increase compared to the current soybean dollar.
If the government were to put a soybean dollar at $190, it would not hesitate to recommend producers to sell all the soybeans they have, this could cause soybeans to fall on the international market, since selling 17 million tons in less than 1 month would be of great importance. impact. Nor would there be a logistics that resists.
With such a prize, the producer would sell his soybeans, saving corn and wheat, which would raise the price of these products and generate more inflation.
The producer who sells soybeans should diversify his income. Our proposal would be the following:
- 25% establish fixed terms in pesos adjusted for inflation, to face the expenses that you will have in the immediate future, especially expenses for the structure of your business.
- 25% will be used to pay off debts, clean up cash and have a clearer financial scenario.
- 25% would buy inputs for this or future campaigns, we believe that the input will continue to rise for a long time.
- 25% would buy a dollar bag as savings in case of any eventuality. If it is a legal company, it would first withdraw profits and buy dollars at the head of the shareholder, so as not to pay income tax for its greater value.
These percentages can be modified to suit the consumer, they are just a reference for an imaginary sale.
Putting a soybean dollar would generate negative externalities in the foreign exchange market. The government would have to issue more money and, in the absence of an absorption, inflation levels would shoot up. If the Central Bank absorbs the surplus pesos, it would increase monetary liabilities, which would leave the doors open for a rise in alternative dollars.
You can put a soybean dollar, what you cannot do is avoid negative externalities, rise in wheat, corn, dollar, interest rate and inflation rate.
Conclusions:
- The Argentine exchange system is awful, which contributes to the decline in economic activity in a context of restrictions on imports, payment of external financing and limits on investment (if I cannot import it is difficult for someone to come and invest).
- The multiplicity of dollars plays against investment, the intervention is very bad since it resulted in an exchange rate gap of over 100%, and a tourist dollar that is a gift and invites citizens with good purchasing power to travel abroad .
- Putting a soybean dollar, a mining dollar, or whatever comes to mind, does nothing more than generate privileges for one sector to the detriment of others. The one that exports soybeans will have a preferential dollar, but if you export milk or meat you are second class.
- GDP is equal to Consumption + Investment + Export – imports. Investment, export and import are stopped with a scheme of differential exchange rates with gaps greater than 100% and quantity restrictions that the only thing they achieve is that in 2023 we enter a severe recession. Consumption is in sharp decline due to high inflation and the consequent drop in the purchasing power of wages.
- Courage, maybe now with Gabriel Rubinstein they will realize it and take the correct measures, but first they have to overcome the political restrictions and that is an uncontrolled variable for the officials of the Ministry of Economy.
Source: Ambito
