-What would have happened to Sergio Massa if the US$ 6,000 million from soy had not entered in a single month, because the reserves did not increase and the State consumed all the dollars that entered.
How’s the movie going?
-Very simple, more announcements are coming. The Ministry of Economy is working on more import restrictions, when you can’t attack you have to defend yourself. The government is unable to seduce capital, it generates high distrust, therefore, it has to put limits on the entry of merchandise from abroad.
What about tourism?
-In 12 months the tourism balance deficit was US$4.3 billion, now they are working to raise the tourism dollar to discourage trips abroad. The problem is that domestic tourism also copies the higher cost of traveling abroad, and going to the Argentine coast costs the same as the Caribbean, without paying the airfare.
A world of restrictions
-It is what is coming for the Argentine economy.
How is the fourth quarter of the year coming?
-The government presented the budget, they will work to approve it and, from there, they will launch measures to reactivate the economy. In October, US$3.9 billion would arrive from the IMF plus another US$3.9 billion from international financial organizations. Regarding this last point, the announcements have been repeated since the minister took office, but the money has not arrived. The sum of this income of dollars, plus the restrictions on imports and the rise in the tourism dollar, would make the government reach the end of the year without major complications, and meeting the goals with the IMF.
Any money laundering ad?
-The Government wants to implement a laundering, where the pesos or dollars that are laundered can be used to import, buy new or used houses, buy cars or trucks, even be used to go to the supermarket.
Really?
-It is a way of ridiculing whitewashing from this column.
What do you want to do?
-That the black economy, which is almost 60% of the economy, becomes white more quickly, although we have problems.
For example?
-The black economy has no taxes, if you become white all the AFIP cavalry falls on you. If you can launder money to buy vehicles, you are encouraging imports and that is of no use to the Government. Everything is very precarious in Argentina.
How do you see the dollar?
-The Government has a pattern of decisions that points to higher inflation and devaluation of the peso. The Central Bank has been increasing the interest rate below the inflation rate for 8 months and the exchange rate has increased less than the inflation rate and the interest rate, all this within the framework of a very high fiscal deficit. This has been resulting in an increase in inflation for months, a delay in the exchange rate, a rise in alternative dollars. For 3 months we have had a trade balance deficit and the flow of dollars from Argentina is negative, which pushes back the stock of reserves.
Can you change this policy?
-This policy survived the last 3 ministers, with which we believe it is a condition imposed by the Instituto Patria on the national government, and the one who has the singing voice is the vice president, advised by the governor of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof. What can go wrong? All.
How do you see the international scene?
-The United States is raising the interest rate, the dollar is strengthening at the global level, the yuan is devalued to its maximum value in history and the real began a devaluation process in the framework of the presidential elections. In short, we have a headwind from outside.
How are the 4 engines of Argentina?
-The consumption engine is off, wages lose purchasing power and this does not boost the economy, we see a very complicated fourth quarter 2022 in this area. The investment engine has been off for a long time, except for some specific investments in mining, gas and oil, the rest of the investments are very poor. The export engine is not able to consolidate itself with a delayed exchange rate, we export fewer quantities at higher prices, if prices adjust we will be in trouble. The import engine is off and without fuel, the government will continue to restrict imports.
If the 4 engines are in trouble, in the year 2023 the GDP would not grow
-For the year 2023 we believe that we are going to see a drop of 3% of the GDP, there is no drag from the year 2022 and, with the engines off, the only thing left for the government is to plan until the elections.
Conclusions
- To the extent that the government does not obtain a genuine income of dollars from abroad, the peso will continue to devalue and it will have to accelerate the process of import restrictions.
- The soybean dollar is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow, in the fourth quarter of the year no one will sell a soybean and it will become more complicated to achieve a surplus in the trade balance.
- Inflation is heading to 3 digits for December and the alternative dollars have many chances of being close to $400, unless it is true that genuine US$4 billion arrives to increase reserves, in which case the dollar could be located in $370 lathe.
- Interest rates remain negative against inflation, therefore, taking financing is highly recommended, considering that the inflation rate will also continue to be high.
- The best investment in pesos goes through the letters and bonds tied to inflation, the problem is if the government at some point restructures its payment, what they call reshaping or good manners scam.
- Dollar bonds are already a complete scam, they come from reprofiling to reprofiling, and today they do not look attractive in this context.
- The government’s commitment is to obtain fresh money abroad and whiten the black economy, very modest objectives that are difficult to achieve in a country that lacks confidence. For all this, all roads lead to the dollar.
Source: Ambito
