- The Argentine field in nine months of 2022 exported for a total of US$33,817.3 million, a record figure that exceeds all that was exported in 2021 by US$1,000 million.
- Those who sold soybeans were not in a hurry to invest the money. In the financial system there are deposits for $15.7 million, which represent an increase of 86.3% compared to a year ago. While in dollars there is a total of US$17,514 million, which is 8.3% less than a year ago. This implies that the producer did not deposit dollars in the system, he stayed in pesos.
- The MEP or stock dollar went from $284.78 on August 31, 2022 to trading at $300.82 on September 30, which reveals that there was no massive purchase of dollars in the market. In the same period of time, the blue dollar fell from $295 to $292, not even the informal dollar moved during the extraordinary sale of soybeans.
- Many producers stayed in the system taking advantage of the chacarera account, where the deposited pesos are updated by the value of the wholesale dollar.
- The fixed terms in pesos add up to $7.1 billion, in the last year they increased 99.5%, this denotes that much of the soybeans sold went to placements in pesos with a 30-day term.
Against all the criticism that many make of the field, we have attended a sale of US$8,120.3 million that, at an average dollar of $180 (sales of soybeans at $200 and other products $150), generated an amount in pesos of $1.5 billion, and did not generate a stampede in the price of the dollar, rather the money remained in the system financial, we do not know if it is waiting to take off to new destinations, or if it will remain for a long time in pesos deposited in the banks.
Argentina, with an inflation that is projected at 100% per year, has an economic sector such as agriculture that, with its behavior, bets on the peso (?).
From our point of view, It is still a problem so much liquidity in the system without a specific destinationany crisis derived from politics that causes concern in the sector could generate an outflow of funds from the banks, destined for other assets, generating a rise in price in the economy, or a sustained increase in the dollar.
For now and only for now, of the $1.5 billion collected by the farm, we could estimate that half was placed in time deposits in pesos, and that the rest is placed between the chacarero account and short-term investment funds, at waiting for a more thoughtful placement.
Investment options for producers with a short portfolio
The investment portfolio is very small for a conservative investor like a man in the country. Investment instruments in dollars with an attractive interest rate are not abundant. There are many offers of negotiable obligations, either under foreign or national law, with short maturities that show yields between 4% and 10% per year in dollars.
Argentina’s sovereign bonds are trading at very low levels, with parities ranging from 18% to 24%, and with yields of 30% to 50% per year. You have to have a big stomach to buy them, but if they were to undergo a future restructuring, there is not much money to lose in the long run. The uncertainty generated by the current government is difficult to measure, they play solitaire and cheat, so they do not capture the attention of any investor.
The bonds in pesos at a one-year term they yield 108.2%, they expire before the legislative elections. A letter to 71 days term yields 111% per year.
A inflation adjusted letter a 71-day term yields inflation minus 1.2% per year. A bond that adjusts for inflation such as the Bonte 2023 maturing on August 13, 2023 yields inflation plus 3.15%, it also matures before the elections.
There are other alternatives like dual bonds or bonds that adjust for the official dollarbut they do not look so attractive, since in the short term they pay very negative rates.
The bond of the province of Córdoba it can be bought in pesos, but it is in dollars and it pays rent in dollars yielding 7.14% per year, pays amortization and quarterly rent and expires on October 27, 2026, for the average of new investors, that date is the long term.
The Actions they are highly priced, but they are very volatile and are often not to the liking of the conservative investor. When Mauricio Macri left the government, YPF shares were worth US$9.82 and today they are worth US$6.92. Whoever bets on a return of the opposition to power should see this potential action, thinking that when Macri took office in 2015 they were at US$16.65.
Some will say that they are not good indicators, but we must bear in mind that in 2015 oil was at US$37.0, in 2019 at US$61.06 and currently US$86, 44. To think about it.
The conclusions left by the soybean dollar effect
The financial system is very liquid, if the producer continues to leave money in pesos in the banks, he runs the risk that rising inflation will end up taking away the purchasing power of the money he deposited.
A fixed term yields 75% per year, and if you reinvest the income in one year you could obtain 107% per year. Compared to the dollar, to end up equalizing a fixed term and the MEP dollar in a year ahead, the dollar would have to be below $600.
The lack of investment, the rise in wages to levels of 100% or a higher percentage, and the closure of imports generate an explosive cocktail for the coming months, where the inflation rate could be above 7%. monthly.
In this context, all roads lead to the dollar, but probably in the immediate term, a positive fiscal result in September and the disbursement from the IMF next week will delay the takeoff in terms of prices. Nevertheless, buying at current values is a real bargain, especially considering that one year it could be above $600.
Source: Ambito
