The atonement of Sergio Massa and the confession of Cristina Kirchner

The Treasury organized an overwhelming debt swap in pesos, which made the terms of the debt more docile between August and October, and eloquently compressed the insistence on the automaticity of the monetary issue. This, in the context of November, in which banks call customers all day to offer them loans with an inconceivable CTF. That’s why no one takes them.

In another order of things, the consummation of the “soybean dollar” strategy provided a balm that allowed more than US$8,000 million to be advanced in liquidations of exports of the soybean complex and more than US$5,000 million were obtained through the official market of exchange rates, strengthening the depressed net reserves of the BCRA. Massa’s approach to the IMF allowed the disbursement forecast for September to be rescued and all this together made the goals for the third quarter of 2022 viable. However, the external situation continues to be very complicated.

But the only truth is reality. Massa’s fiscal adjustment is becoming more complicated, since the need to increase spending on bonds and social plans is a “must”. In the meantime, the 2022 monetary shocks vigorously stimulated the increase in the stock of remunerated BCRA liabilities, with which the accrued quasi-fiscal deficit has already scaled $564,000 million per month, representing 2.5 times the primary fiscal deficit. Finally, the inflation rate found a ceiling between 6/7% per month, above the inflation rate of the first semester.

The Massa plan does not solve inflation forcefully, but for now it manages to keep its limits stable. Lately, Massa came to carry the cross that Macri left him when he promoted him at the Davos Forum. As we said in previous articles, Macri’s inheritance was humanly irreversible, without a pandemic and without a war in Europe. imagine.

So far, the painkillers have been calming the pain, but being able to reach August 2023 will be a challenge that will remain unchanged over the weeks. Unquestionably, the Government will have to do much more. The BCRA’s reserves continue to be insufficient and the horizon is very tangled, even with controlled and cornered import disbursements, the BCRA will have to sell dollars in the official exchange market, with some extenuating weeks of purchase. About US$8 billion is needed in the next 5 months. The fight is cyclopean with drought, meager reserves, uncertainty about the financing of the Treasury in the local market, high nominal value and progressive risk in the political oscillation.

If the economy were not sustained, even Patricia Bullrich could be president. She would return the conjunction of incompetence and plotting. A risk of magnitudes immeasurable. Mauricio Macri wanted to plot by going to the IMF, but the mistake was that what was done was so bad, in front of the whole world, that he showed the crowd that he could not be president. If the economy held up to PASS, the opportunities for lunatics and new kooks would diminish. We refer to the Delta and Ómicron variants that we announce Let’s change.

Unfortunately, the threat of the return of political nonsense was underestimated, which does not guarantee a serene Argentina. Even Cristina Kirchner recognized it in her speech, she said that what is coming is very complicated. She’s not enough to rearrange the chairs of the Titanic. The inheritance that Macri humanly is almost irreversible. Only a miracle from God can help those affected by their negligence. And if, on the other hand, the ruling party wins, the constant campaign of the stable cast threatens a wavering Peronism, which could be a victim of those who have been making life impossible for it since 2007. The devaluation club grows, it wants to make the escaped dollars count, to acquire Argentine assets at vile prices. There, paradoxically, the businessmen who supported the 2015-2019 experiment are reached.

Assuming the opposition wins, there are great risks around the social question. If they remove the programs, a social outbreak of magnitude can be expected. It would be necessary to see if he gives the leather to a president to endure dead, as Macri admitted. With the concepts of the book Why? Argentina can turn into chaos in less than a year, like the Bolivian government of Jeanine Áñez. Presidential Candidates Vowing To Meet Neoliberal Reforms With Violence Multiply Investor Panic. They already know Macri. But the candidates sponsored by the former president coexist hyper-ideologized in a hybrid between post-fascism and an anti-democratic neoliberalism that is frightening.

Massa and Cristina turn to Peronist pragmatism

In Davos, Macri positioned Massa as the next leader of the PJ: “I am accompanied by one of the most important leaders of the opposition, Sergio Massa”explained the president, adding that he has “serious possibilities” of being the one who “leads the Peronist party in the coming months.”(La Nación, January 22, 2016)

… “with Néstor we stayed together with Perón”, Cristina reaffirmed. She had already said it on March 24, 2021 in Las Flores. An admitted memory, consistent with: “The last time I heard that they called me petty bourgeois was in La Plata. “I am not a petty bourgeois. I am a big bourgeois don’t fuck with me anymore”. Although it is not a novelty, they were always top-down, including the Menemista period. “They did not go with the Group of 8.” But both mentions seem inconsistent with the political space that most preserves and protects Cristina. This new reference of when Montoneros and the JP (The Revolutionary Tendency) left the Plaza de Mayo on May 1, 1974, the day that Perón described them as “beardless”. Paradoxically, Patricia Bullrich must have left the Plaza with Galimberti. It may be because Perón that day He promised that he would liberate the country: “not only from colonialism that has been plaguing the Republic for so many years, but also from these infiltrators who work inside and who are treacherously more dangerous than those who work from outside, not to mention that the most of them are mercenaries at the service of foreign money”. What clarity Perón had!

The objective of shifting the economy to the right by naming Massa a minister defeats the true objective of bullying and the “corridas by left” to Martin Guzmán. Massa came for something else. Cristina Kirchner, as we said, made “the great Garrincha” (scope 08-17-22), he feinted to the left with the IMF, and left to the right. It shows that he learned from Perón and that he is a “requete Peronist”, unlike a naive militancy that, by focusing on Alberto Fernández, Martin Guzmán and the IMF, was functional and made Macri lose sight of the disaster. Did they let a deranged man rule for 4 years, put us in debt with the IMF, and after the pandemic and the war the problem was within the FDT itself? – The vigilantes of virtue, the police of progressive correctness, allowed to naturalize the COVID debate that the media and JxC installed, instead of talking about the debt with the IMF until 2022. Peronism should win the elections unless it is repeat another zombie apocalypse.

The Peronists come to clean up the chaos of JxC because-given the ignorance of Peronism-abroad, the reputation of good administrators is preserved by them. The turn to pragmatism has been useful to prevent the self-inflicted crisis from escalating, with the tender proposals to kick the table at the IMF, “applying the seventies epic, of those who left the Plaza, not of those who stayed”.