Between December 2021 and November 2022, more interest has been paid on the Central Bank’s debt stock than the deficit of the national public sector.
This leads us to think that the national State is going through a crisis of credibility and trust, since, since it does not obtain genuine financing in the market, it must resort to issuing money to finance the public sector.
In the last 12 months, the issuance of the Central Bank would have amounted to $2.50 million million, while the fiscal result was $2.69 million million.
We are in a scenario very similar to the 80s where the State did not get financing and abused the monetary issue to solve this problem.
Argentina restructured the public debt, and reached an agreement with the IMF, however, the inability of the rulers to balance the public accounts, and obtain genuine financing, led us to a very large deterioration of the financial indicators, which places us with a 3 digit inflation.
Although liters of ink are spilled to explain that the problem is the fiscal deficit, if today the government would achieve a fiscal surplus, It is highly probable that genuine financing will not be obtained to increase the reserves either, since the lack of confidence in the rulers is manifest, and during the entire administration there is no knowledge of the placement of a bond abroad or the arrival of fresh dollars to rebuild reserves. .
Problems for the year 2023
Facing the year 2023 we find that The national government is depleting the resources from the withholdings of wheat and corn, since it advanced their collection and they will not be part of tax revenue next year. On the other hand, the government asked big business for an advance on income taxwhich will be more pesos to enter in the short term, but less collection in the year 2023.
The drop in income for the year 2023 is worrisome, which is why the government is working on implementing possible money laundering. Although nobody wants to launder money because it is onerous and there is a manifest lack of trust, the versions of an agreement with the United States to know the bank accounts of Argentines in said territory could soften more than one taxpayer with informal money in the country of the north.
Sergio Massa would sign an information exchange agreement with the United States, which would expose more than one taxpayer who mischievously brought money to the northern country, and who omitted to declare it in the Argentine Republic.
The taxpayer who entered the laundering of the year 2016, and is found in default in the following years, will have as a penalty that he will lose the benefits of the previous launderings, something that can be very onerous for the taxpayers.
The International Investment position of Argentina indicates that there are assets abroad for US$ 419,558 million, of which US$ 43,352 million are placed in direct investments, US$ 75,444 million in portfolio investments, US$ 257,975 million in other investments (mainly deposits in banks) and U$S 42,787 million are the reserves of the Central Bank, these data are for the second quarter of 2022.
It is estimated that informal money in the United States would amount to a sum greater than US$ 100,000 million, if successful money laundering was carried out, with a tax rate of 10% on capital abroad, the government could collect a whopping US$10 billion. The primary treasury deficit would be around this figure.
conclusions
We are going to an agreement with the United States that will be in force from the year 2023 and the law of fiscal compliance of foreign accounts will be given within the framework of FACTA, this implies that the United States will inform the AFIP of the bank accounts of Argentines in the United States (not bank secrecy is revealed, only the name of the person who has the account abroad). This Argentina could know from the month of September 2023.
In order not to generate a problem of unknown dimensions, the government will make money laundering available to taxpayers during the year 2023 so as not to fall into severe penalties for those who carried out these mischief. Those who paid the taxes accordingly never have any benefit, the arbitrariness of Argentina.
The tax revenues from laundering would allow the national government to meet the IMF’s fiscal goals, and put together a small plan for the elections. On the other hand, it would stop the overflowing issuance of the Central Bank, since it would reduce the deficit, and there would even be room for some capital inflow within the framework of laundering.
The United States would be giving great help to the Argentine government to stabilize the economy, and start a path of normalization in public accounts, and commitments with international organizations.
An Argentine government has never reached an agreement of this magnitude with the United States, carnal relations with the Americans are clearly returning, as happened at some point in the 1990s.
The agreement with the United States would be signed during the month of December, this and the money laundering law to be dealt with in Congress are vital to stabilize public accounts and uncontrolled issuance. If this does not happen, the forecast for the rise in alternative dollars is very high, otherwise it will be necessary to recalculate what may happen in the year 2023.
Source: Ambito
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