Undoubtedly the arrival of Sergio Massa to the Ministry of Economy brought some calm to the market. This was accompanied by a certain adjustment attempt and a package of measures that stopped the skyrocketing of the blue dollar that began with Guzmán’s resignation.
As if that were not enough, with the measure of a special exchange rate for the countryside, they managed to raise more than 8,100 million dollars.
However, the calm was short-lived. Inflation and the issuance of money continued uncontrolled.
And now, the blue dollar has woken up again. Here below we see the evolution of its price:
soybean dollar.png
It is curious that the announcement of the first version of the soybean dollar marked a low for the blue dollar and the end of the correction that began at the end of July.
Although the liquidations were successful and the government managed to raise many dollars, the truth is that the blue dollar had started to fall before. That is, it was already in a short-term downtrend.
Now, the government is going to launch a new soybean dollar, but the movie is completely different. The blue dollar is rising strongly and the “Mass effect” pseems totally exhausted.
Also, remember that inflation and issuance are out of control, so in reality this movement is just a price readjustment.
If we take the value of the blue dollar in August and adjust it for inflation, we find that the parallel exchange rate should be above $350 pesos.
And if we see what happens with the broadcast we have a similar picture. In this regard, I find this graphic from Twitter of Cristian Buteler (@cbuteler), where it shows the relationship between the amount of pesos and the dollar counted with liquidation:
dollar soy2.png
For these reasons, it seems very difficult that this time the soybean dollar will serve to contain the blue.
With all the wind in favor, they will be able to achieve a very short-term calm. But all they will do is stretch out the agony and the consequence will be a higher shot at the beginning of 2023.
In this regard, if you are interested in knowing what can happen to the dollar in 2023, I invite you to download a 100% free report that I prepared where I analyze all the possible scenarios and how to be prepared. You can download it free of charge at this link: Financial letter – new soybean dollar.
Source: Ambito
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