CER instruments
Until almost the middle of the year, these instruments were preferred by investors, as they offer coverage against inflation. But with the sales by the Treasury in the secondary market, back in June, which caused panic among private investors and a massive exit, these assets fell by as much as 15% in a few days, losing appeal among investors. After twists and turns, massive FCI redemptions and sales at auction prices, these instruments recovered due to the high demand for inflation coverage as we continue to go through months of high inflation and expectations for the coming months are not encouraging. Investors seek refuge and find it in these papers since they adjust principal and interest by the CER coefficient, which measures inflation. The demand for UVA fixed terms is also very high, where banks have already set some limits.
But now there are fears about a possible restructuring given the large maturities that the Treasury faces in the coming months, which add to the uncertainty of what the next government will do with this debt. Therefore, today the demand is concentrated in bills and bonds maturing until 2023. These papers yield between 2 and 5% (IRR), depending on the maturity, taking off from the yields of the bonds that mature in 2024 (IRR 12%) and even more than those that mature in 2026 or 2028 (IRR 18%, approximately). It is estimated that the government is intervening in the secondary market, in the 2024 tranche.
During November, the yield of the CER instruments was between 5 and 7% (except for the long bonds of the curve that fell to 6.3%).
Dual bonds and linked dollar
The dual bonds (which pay inflation or devaluation of the official, whichever is higher) and the linked dollar had a timid performance, considering that the depreciation of the peso was 6.5%. Within what are alternatives in pesos, these bonds are among the most sought after as they offer coverage against inflation and against devaluation.
download (17).jpeg
hard dollar bonds
They were the stars of the market this month, recording gains of up to 25% in dollars. However, they are still trading at parities between 22 and 30%. In the year they have been losing an average of 25% in dollars. Many are encouraged to bet on the change of government.
download (18).jpeg
local actions
The Merval set a historical record this month, touching 168,525 points, which represents a rise of 12%, mainly encouraged by the oil and energy sector. Measured in dollars, it rose 6%.
download (19).jpeg
cedears
This is not a good year for equities. The US faces high inflation and is trying to combat it by raising rates and reducing liquidity. Fortunately, the latest CPI data showed that inflation is falling slowly, with which the expectations of rate increases are moderated. Although upward adjustments are expected, they would not be as aggressive as those expected a month ago. Since the beginning of the years, profit taking has been seen in a large part of the SPY actions. In fact, it has been falling 21% in the US. In November it recovered 2%. In the local market so far this year it rose 23%, as a result of the MEP going up). Among the winning companies, the semiconductor, financial, pharmaceutical and cyclical consumer sectors stand out.
financial adviser
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
