There is no doubt that inflation was the most important challenge to solve in 2022 for most countries. At the end of the year, this situation began to be controlled in countries like Brazil and the United Stateswhere the rise in prices is already at much more stable levels than in the months of greatest instability.
On the contrary, andIn Argentina, the inflationary problem still seems to be far from being solved. In fact, the core inflation in our country, marked a 5.3% monthly increasealso showing an acceleration compared to November.
Thus, taking into account that core inflation does not capture the most volatile prices in the economy, it can be seen that core inflation still far from showing a notable slowdownand, therefore, the dynamics of this variable continues to be worrisome.
Future prospects also show clear signs that inflation will continue with high values. According to the forecasts of the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the BCRA for him 2023was shown a slight downward adjustment inflation expectations, with a correction of 1.3pp, going from 99.7% to 98.4%, which would mean that would be two continuous years with inflation above 90%.
Therefore, towards the future, the forecasts are not yet positive as expectations are not anchored and that certain monetary policies, such as the increase in remunerated liabilities of the BCRA, will not help for this to happen either.
If we take this challenging scenario into account, we have to look for investment options that allow us to beat inflation Argentina, for the coming months.
Given this scenario, where having pesos without investing generates losses of purchasing power of great magnitude, from the IOL Investor Research Online We consider that position yourself in CER assets It represents the best choice to protect value against inflation.
Then, some alternatives that we believe can be useful to boost savingswhile also allowing you to protect your capital against rising prices in our economy:
- For investors who want to invest thinking about a short termwhich would be a just under 6 monthswe suggest adding the TX23 bonuswith due March 23, 2023 and what yields to date CER +11%. It should be noted that the expected return on this bond is at 134%so it would also exceed inflation.
- For those seeking to position themselves in pesos at medium termwe suggest adding the dual bonus TDS23. It’s about a instrument that will pay the major capital adjustment between the evolution of the CER index plus a coupon and the evolution of the official exchange rate. This bonus has expiration in September 2023 and has a annual yield (IRR) expected from 117%.
- Thirdly, it is ideal to add to the portfolio the national government bond TX26 that adjust your capital by CER, thus managing to accompany inflation. This bonus with expiration in 2026 has an IRR as of the date of CER+14%.
- Lastly, for those investors looking to invest in several CER instruments at the same timewe suggest positioning yourself in the FCI AdCap Wise Capital Growth. This Fund is positioned in both bills and CER bondsthus offering inflation coverage with different maturity and yield terms to get a return above a fixed term and immediate liquidity.
Head of Research at IOL investoronline
Source: Ambito
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