The numbers of the economy are clear and adverse for the ruling party. Starting with inflation in January, which showed a resounding 6%, which shows a floor for the first quarter of the year and which, except for an occasional anti-inflation plan, will exceed the 60% stipulated in the budget in 2023, with a year-on-year rate from January to January 2023. 98%
In that line, wholesale inflation climbed to 100% in January 2023, which sets a high floor for the coming months, which, monthly, represent 6.5% per month. The management of Alberto Fernandez which, with the particularities of the local and international context, after 3 years, accumulates 339%, the highest since hyperinflation.
The economic situation is such that a typical family needed 2.5 vital and mobile minimum wages to not be poor, since the total basic basket had an increase of 108% year-on-year against 98% inflation and, the food basket of 109, 8% Meanwhile, in 2022, the unregistered private sector had a salary variation of 65.4% and total wage earners of 90.4%. That is to say, an evident increase in income poverty that will be evidenced in the next INDEC report and will widely exceed 40%. Inflation is the tax paid mainly by the poor.
In addition, the drought will be devastating with foreign exchange earnings. The estimate of the impact on the drop in agricultural exports is just over 10 billion dollars if the climatic situation does not deepen, being able to reach 18 billion as the largest negative amount.. This would, in turn, generate a decrease in the collection from withholdings of at least 3 billion dollars. C.In this context, the BCRA accumulates currency sales in the MULC in 2023 for 1,100 million dollars that it cannot save with the very good prices of commodities that, in addition, are accompanied by an improvement in soybean, wheat and corn futures .
Added to this, the monetary front is not the best. The stock of remunerated liabilities of the BCRA exceeds 11 trillion pesos, which generates interest for holders, mainly banks, for 675 billion pesos per month. It is an obvious problem that will continue as, being an electoral year, public spending is increased through issuance to artificially improve the income and consumption of citizens and then, it is sterilized by more remunerated liabilities that will attack during the next administration government, whatever.
There are still no plans on what the next ruler is going to do, but the market reads, analyzes and plans. The December 23 futures discount an increase of 8.3% monthly while in terms of proximity, the crawling peg is priced at an average 6.9%. It knows that inflation will not go down and therefore, in the last tender it demanded instruments tied to the CER + rate to the detriment of the fixed rate, calculating the floor of 6% per month for the coming months. The unions are not sure that they will abide by the 60% ceiling for the next joint negotiations and the first strike is just around the corner, knowing that they will have to negotiate a salary increase in positive real terms to have a chance of reaching it. to the eventual run-off of the electoral contest.
However, despite this complex scenario, 2023 is just beginning and there are more than 6 months to go before the first national primary election. The macroeconomic data is not good, but it is also true that a percentage of voters define their suffrage in the last days before the election. It seems that the electoral scenario is divided into three poles and the economic question is important, especially in low, medium-low and medium-income families, those who usually vote “with the pocket”
Pension moratorium, fixed money bonuses for retirees and lower sectors, changes in the non-taxable minimum earnings, positive parity in real terms before the election, inaugurations of public works and everything that is within reach to achieve victory. .
It is not necessary to do futurology about how much is the inflation index that allows an electoral defeat, if 6% or if 3% is victorious, but rather, if the purchasing power of wage earners improves, it is likely that expectations will change and there will be more votes towards the ruling party and if that does not happen, towards the opposition. The year passes and in the Argentine macro, 6 months is the long term, an eternity.
Source: Ambito
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