Although the economic team managed to slow down the race for nominality, unfortunately today the number “6” is installed as the floor of said nominality, with the risk that it will accelerate in the coming months.
Not to mention the drought, This generates great uncertainty regarding the ability of the BCRA to be able to meet the goals of international assets.
Another challenge is the fortnightly renewal of the debt in pesos, which requires a rollover level of more than 120% to prevent the BCRA from financing the Treasury.
In this delicate context, JxC has begun issuing statements that, although they accentuate the current concerns in 2023, have not generated turbulence for the moment.
However, in this adverse local context, we have been seeing a recovery in the parities of “hard dollar” sovereign bonds and in share prices. My interpretation is that the market begins to project a different Argentina around 2024.
With the current economic scenario, where according to the INDEC’s EMAE the economy has been slowing down since September, at the same time as also according to the INDEC, unfortunately the rate of growth of the CPI has accelerated, it is difficult to imagine that the ruling party can achieve re-election.
According to what happened in the midterm elections and the projections of political analysts, it appears that the government at the end of 2023 would be assumed by some representative of the opposition, which in my opinion would have three aspects in favor:
In the first place, it would present a more solid degree of governance than the one that JxC was able to achieve in 2015, because this time, if said coalition is the one that manages to succeed, it would obtain at least a majority in one of the chambers of the National Congress. .
A second aspect that I consider to be of crucial importance is that, in addition to the traditional box of dollars generated by the field, today the potential of Vaca Muerta begins to materialize. Even more so in a world that tends to accelerate oil consumption.
A third aspect of crucial relevance is that this year it is highly probable that the “tightening” cycle will end and, according to our Research and Strategy team, in 2024 it is very likely that the “monetary easing” cycle will begin, on the part of from the fed.
Therefore, a coalition that has a better level of governance, with a greater cash box of dollars and a more favorable global context, constitute more favorable conditions for its government to have a greater probability of success.
Obviously, it will be necessary that what seems like a new opportunity not be wasted.
I believe that today financial assets, both debt and shares, constitute an opportunity for positioning in the medium and long term, as well as the assets of the real economy.
My position does not simply remain in an opinion, but I bring it to reality in Puerto Nizuc, which is an investment project of more than 145 million dollars. I have also been investing heavily in the IEB Group, which today has more than 100 employees. Soon we are launching an “app” to the market that will help spread the word about the capital market. Through the fund company, we provide solutions to people, treasuries and the financing of companies.
Therefore, I am convinced that we do not have to let ourselves be overwhelmed by short-term challenges, but rather focus on the potential that the country has for the future. After the clouds that are on the horizon today, my position is that we have to work and make an effort to increase the chances of a clear sky.
President and Founder of IEB Group
Source: Ambito
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