For Investors: Recommended Portfolios for a High Uncertainty Scenario

For Investors: Recommended Portfolios for a High Uncertainty Scenario

The range of options depends on the objectives, the profile and the currency in which you are looking to invest. This leads us to divide the options into two alternatives that we are going to call World Dollar, thinking of those who have surpluses to invest that are denominated in that currency and World Weights for those who generate surpluses from their local activity and need to seek investment alternatives.

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Investment Options: World Dollar:

The local market offers two alternatives to invest dollars, public securities or the negotiable obligations of the main exporting companies.

Among the first of the alternatives we find the National Treasury bonds that were issued after last year’s restructuring. They are at low prices, with a potential for improvement. As a reference, bonds such as GD29 or GD30 offer an average yield of 21.5% per year in dollars. If expectations are aligned, they offer a high capital profit margin, especially since current prices include the potential effect of negative scenarios for the Argentine economy. As a point in favor, as of 2022, given the low parity at which they are, they already begin to pay interest rates of the order of 4% / 4.5% per year and as a negative point, these are bonds with maturity that just in 2024 they begin to amortize capital (high duration).

The other option is Negotiable Obligations, from leading companies with an export profile, which offer shorter terms and are not subject to the volatility of public securities in full negotiation with the IMF. The main obstacle they have is that the minimum investment amount is very high and they operate in foreign markets. That is why at Quinquela we develop a common fund such as Quinquela Ahorro Dollars, which invests in these types of assets, making them accessible to retail investors. Funds of these characteristics today have average returns of the order of 5/7% per year in dollars, always entering and leaving in the same currency.

Investment Options World Pesos:

For those who start with pesos, the decision is different, because in addition to seeking profitability and liquidity, they must analyze different coverage options. The main risks that investors identify today have to do with the speed of adjustment of the official exchange rate and with inflation. In other words, they seek to preserve the purchasing power of their pesos both in terms of goods and the official exchange rate.

For this group of investors today we are offering three different portfolio options: Traditional Profile, Balanced Profile, Audacious Profile. The choice of each of these portfolios depends on the expectations and needs of each investor.

  • Traditional Profile: It is designed for individuals and companies that prioritize maintaining high levels of liquidity and low volatility of their investments. For this client profile, we recommend a portfolio made up of 4 mutual funds. In order to maintain liquidity, we assign 10% to the Quinquela Pesos Fund, which invests in fixed-term deposits and remunerated accounts, 30% to Quinquela Ahorro, a fund that incorporates short, low-volatility public securities, to generate a superior yield at the Badlar rate (Fixed Term). The rest we focus on a hedging strategy, with 40% of a fund with CER adjustment (Quinquela Total Return) and 20% hedging against depreciation of the official dollar (Dollar Linked) through the Quinquela Renta Mixta.
  • Balanced Profile: These are clients who need a little less liquidity and are therefore willing to extend the term of their investments a bit in search of greater profitability. In this case, the recommended portfolio focuses on the coverage alternatives CER (Quinquela Total Return with 50%) and Dollar Linked (Quinquela Renta Mixta with 30%). The remaining 20% ​​is assigned to the Savings Quinquela to maintain a high degree of liquidity without giving up the possibility of achieving a higher yield than a fixed term.
  • Audacious Profile: It is intended for clients who have funds available for a longer time, therefore, they can include investment alternatives that may require a bit more patience, but in return offer a greater potential profit. The alternative we suggest is to give up 10 liquidity points from the previous portfolio and invest it in equities through the Quinquela Actions. Despite the recent price increase, the valuations of Argentine companies are still low in historical terms and compared to similar companies in other countries in the region.

General Manager of Quinquela Fondos.

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