SDRs and what expires from the IMF
Argentina received from the IMF in Special Drawing Rights the sum US $ 4,334 million, of that total will be spent in 2021 US $ 4,177 million, with which the capital maturities of September and December are covered, plus the interests that mature in November.
During the year 2022, the quotas due with the IMF add up to US $ 17,892 million capital and And $ S 1,250 millions of interest, a total of US $ 19,142 million.
In the year 2023, the IMF maturities total US $ 18,975 million capital and US $ 419 million interest, a total of US $ 19,394 million.
There remains a balance for the year 2024 amounting to US $ 4.867 million capital and US $ 21 million interest, a total of US $ 4,888 million.
Between capital and interest, the sum to be paid to the IMF amounts to US $ 43,424 million.
In the first quarter of 2022 you have to pay US $ 3,976 million, that figure is not available in the reserves of the Central Bank. Of that total in the month of January 2022 you have to pay US $ 731 million, in February US $ 372 million and in the month of March US $ 2,873 million.
Argentina has a debt with the Paris Club for the equivalent of US $ 2.4 billion, of which he paid US $ 230 million in the month of July, and you should pay about US $ 200 million in the month of February. The government defer the rest of the debt, until an agreement with the IMF is reached or until May 31, 2022, whichever comes first.
Debt in pesos adjusted for inflation in 2022, adds up to the equivalent of US $ 16,717 million, of which US $ 7,202 million They expire in the first quarter of the year.
In short, in the first quarter they expire US $ 3,976 million of the debt with the IMF, US $ 200 million with the Paris Club and debt in $ adjusted by CER for US $ 7,202 million. This adds up US $ 11,378 million, a maturity that is impossible to pay and difficult to refinance.
To take as a reference, all loans from the financial system to the private sector, measured in official dollars, add up to US $ 36,480 million. While in the entire year 2022, state debt matures for a total of US $ 61,347 million.
What’s coming, what’s coming
The government will seek a pardon to extend the period of negotiation with the IMF, the quotas of the agreement that expire as of January will not be able to be paid. There are no physical dollars to meet expiration.
The gross reserves of the Central Bank total US $ 42,781 million, of that total, net liquid reserves would add up to less than US $ 2,000 million. We are in problems.
Wheat exports would not exceed 10 million tons between December and March, this implies an income of US $ 3,000 million, which is important but insufficient for the number of maturities ahead of us, plus the dollars that are destined for imports.
wheat mill fielddónico.jpg
As we can see, we have a world of restrictions ahead of us. The expenses of the third quarter are much higher than the income of the State, this would imply a deficit of Additional $ 1,000,000 million. This would imply that the State should obtain external or internal credit to finance this amount, or else ask the Central Bank for the money, which should issue a part of that amount.
With a scenario of high fiscal deficit, high monetary issue, scarce reserves and the increasingly concrete possibility of entering into default of payments or in a request to postpone payments to the IMF, the resulting business climate is one dollar that this party in 6 large groups.
- Official dollar in $ 100 (you look and do not touch, only to export and import)
- Solidarity dollar at $ 173.25 (only U $ S 200 per month)
- Dollar MEP and CCL controlled $ 180 (only U $ S 18,000 per month)
- Blue, black or casual dollar $ 201 (anything you want is illegal)
- Dollar MEP and free CCL $ 206 and $ 217 (All you want)
- Dollar Cedear $ 217 (All you want)
The more you want to buy, the price will be more expensive. The inverse of a free supply and demand market. In this case, the further you move away from the restrictions, the price rises significantly.
To this we should add the mess in the price of the rates. The price of fuels is fantasy and the subsidies for the year 2022 would amount to US $ 16,000 million. If fuels increase the higher price is paid by the consumer, if they do not increase, the consumer also pays them, but in a different way.
conclusion
- It is very likely that in the month of December, we will have an inflationary flash. The government cannot sustain the current economic plan. You have to change the monetary and exchange plan. Carry out a tax reform. Give a political framework to the reform. To dictate laws that allow the arrival of investments. Restructure the debt and obtain external credit for the private and public sectors.
- After the elections, many unknowns will be revealed, but the recovery will be very slow, for the year 2022 and 2023 a GDP growth of no more than 1.5% per year is expected for each year, it is logical, Without investments difficult to grow, companies will have to try to be more efficient, win market and stay with the competitor’s market. In this plan there is no place for everyone.
Source From: Ambito
