Inflation in the world goes down, rates stabilize and there would be a soft landing. In Argentina the alarms sound, owe pesos and buy dollars.
The international economic scenario gives us some peace of mind, the Federal Reserve spaced out the rate hike, it stands at 5/5.25% per year, and could raise it in the next meetings. There are 4 meetings left to finish the year that will take place in July, September, November and December. The Federal Reserve begins to see that he could perform a soft landing in the economy, which invigorated the markets.
In recent days we have seen an increase in the prices of oil, copper and soybeans, which denotes a position taken by speculative funds that see an improvement in activity worldwide.
The dollar At a global level it shows some weakness, which means that currencies of emerging countries such as Mexico and Brazil show a great revaluation. These countries have low inflation levels and positive interest rates.
In Argentina inflation climbed to 7.8% per month and he’s already running at a rate of 150% per year, which puts us in a defensive position.
The fixed term is giving you a nominal rate of 97% per year, and an effective rate of 161.3% per year. For now and only for now, it is a positive rate.
Credits at rates lower than 130% per year are an opportunity for companies and businesses, nominality is overwhelming us.
In this context, After the first 15 days of the month, the dollar becomes a buyerwe are storming $500, and aiming for a dollar above $600 for the month of July.
Conclusions:
- The government has few reserves, there is no room in the short term to get a soybean dollar and even less a corn dollar with these inflation rates. The arrival of dollars to the reserves will be very slow.
- We see an agreement with the IMF far away, Argentina will not pay the installments that are due and will postpone the agreement until after August 13, to live with ours.
- Inflation travels at 150% per year, loans for companies below that rate are highly beneficial. Personal loans are well above this rate, and are not beneficial.
- You have to postpone payments, buy what you can in installments and cover yourself in dollars in the future.
- the market of Argentine stocks and bonds begin to discount an end of economic cycleand the arrival of a more rational government, which is why we see increases in Argentine assets.
- The result of the elections on August 13 will be decisive for the price of Argentine financial assets. You can see the duality of a rising capital market, with a real economy in recession.
- The price of dollar should be around $625 If we measure reserves versus monetary liabilities, it’s a matter of time, everything arrives.
Source: Ambito
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