Reserves are lacking, a tax on imports is coming, the illiquidity of July arrives, the government does not stop issuing pesos, and the dollar continues at a bargain price.
. – The loss of reserves is impressive, in the first 6 months of the year they went from US$ 44,587 million, ending yesterday at US$ 30,857 million, it is a very significant loss for 180 days.
. – Reserves have no chance of growing because we do not have strong exports, therefore, the probability of a rise in alternative dollars is just around the corner.
What happens to the monetary base?
. – The monetary base is at $5.6 trillion, when at the beginning of the year it was at $5.2 trillion.
What about the Central Bank debt?
. – Today it totals $15.5 trillion, when at the beginning of the year it stood at $9.8 trillion. It is a very significant increase.
How much was the equilibrium dollar at the price of the year, and how much is it today?
. – As of December 31, it was at $336 and the blue dollar ended the year at $348. Currently, the equilibrium dollar is at $684 and the blue dollar at $498. In 6 months inflation could be at 52 0.0% and the blue dollar would be rising 43.0% in the same period of time, it is clearly far behind.
Is there a possibility of a very important adjustment?
. – At present, the market has evaluated possibilities of political change ahead, this implies that it is clear that the proposals of the presidential candidates will be more rational, and that from a scenario of thirds we would go to two candidates launched in tough competition, with more possibilities so far for the opposition. This caused financial assets to adjust upwards, but reserve management is indicating an imminent danger.
How do you see the agreement with the IMF?
. – It must be closed now, but one day after the expiration of a payment of US$ 2,700 million, it is still in a deliberative state. The IMF wants a 30% devaluation, and the government offers the 30% tax on imports.
How would it be?
. – Imports would be affected by a 30% tax that would be deductible from earnings in the year 2024. This implies that we make imported products more expensive, increase collection and defund the next government. All in one act.
Would this bring us more inflation?
. – We believe that yes, there are also severe profitability problems in many economic sectors, however the government does not have many options against the IMF, if it pays on Friday, June 30, the reserves will sink below US$ 30,000 million.
The rent of the bonds is due on July 9, do you think they will pay?
. -I think they would pay, if they didn’t, the economic consequences would affect the ruling party candidate in his electoral career. I think they pay, and he will have some help from abroad.
How are the external quotes
. – Very bad prices for oil, copper and agricultural raw materials. China continues to devalue the yuan, and this affects bilateral trade and the prices of the traded merchandise.
Conclusion
. – The rise in stocks and bonds will be difficult to sustain if Argentina does not reach an agreement with the IMF.
. – If Argentina received help from the IMF, the reserves could climb to US$ 35,000 million, this would leave us with a balance dollar of around $600 as a result, with which alternative dollars of around $500 continue to be at a good price .
. – If the country tax for imports is made effective, we will have a significant inflationary jump, making a fixed term in pesos adjusted for inflation is a good option to place surplus pesos.
. – There is very little liquidity in the market, and this will deepen with the bonus payment, it is probable a profit-taking in stocks and bonds, when liquidity is restored, financial assets will seek a new equilibrium point on the rise.
. – The dollar could be offered, and as long as you keep getting it below $500 it is a good purchase price.
. – Real assets (real estate) 45 days before the PASO elections continue to be at very low prices, financial assets are recovering value, bonds and negotiable obligations are a good option for conservative investors.
. – For those seeking adrenaline, shares linked to artificial intelligence listed in the United States continue to be a good purchase option. American banks are approaching a floor to the extent that the Federal Reserve is reaching a ceiling in raising rates.
. – Discount time begins 45 days before the PASO elections, with key definitions with the IMF, reserves in the red zone, the issuance of pesos on the stick, and inflation that could accelerate at any time.
Source: Ambito
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