The international investment position as of December 2022 reported by the indec indicates that Argentina has a creditor position with the world for u$s116.019 million. The assets of Argentines abroad add up to US$424,777 millionwhile liabilities add up US$308,758 million.
If we disaggregate these numbers by institutional nature, we observe that the public sector has assets abroad for US$56,009 millionand liabilities amount to US$140,441 millionthis implies that the government has a deficit of u$s84,432 million.
The private sector has assets abroad for US$368,767 millionwhile liabilities add up US$168,317 millionwhich implies that the private sector has a surplus of US$200.450 million.
Argentina is a Rare avisSince it is one of the few Latin American countries that is a creditor in the international investment position, it exports capital, when its economy has been stagnant for years and has not been able to take off. When we look at these numbers, it makes sense that the dollar is in such high demand, precisely to migrate it abroad.
How did it go for the one who bought the blue dollar?
In the last 5 years the Dolar blue measured up to the month of June it rose 1,550%, in the last 4 years 1,025%, in the last 3 years 283.7%, in the last 2 years 187.8% and in the last 12 months 105.4 %.
- Inflation in the last 5 years was 1,093%, won the evolution of the Dolar blue.
- In 4 years inflation was 666%, the one who collected won Dolar blue.
- In 3 years inflation was 436% and the one who bought lost Dolar blue.
- In 2 years inflation was 257% and the one who bought lost Dolar blue.
- In the last 12 months inflation was 118% and the one who bought lost Dolar blue.
To compile these data, we estimate for the month of June an inflation of 7% and a value of Dolar blue at $495.
How much should the blue dollar be trading to win?
In the last 3 years the Dolar blue lost ground in the face of inflation, in order to recover the lost ground on Dolar blue should be on June 30 around $560.
To recover the ground lost in the last two years, the bule dollar should be in $620.
To recover the ground lost in the last 12 months you should be in $525.
This does not indicate that for the dollar to prevail over the inflation of recent years it should rise in price to the area between $560 and $620.
How much is the equilibrium dollar worth?
With data as of June 21, the Central Bank’s reserves add up to US$31,616 millionand monetary liabilities $20.8 trillion, the equilibrium or conversion dollar would be located at $658.
The stock of remunerated monetary liabilities amounts to $15.3 trillion, which at an annual rate of 97% gives us an interest payment of $1.2 trillion per month, which acts as an endogenous issue of pesos to the market. If we add to this the issuance of money to finance the treasury, in the second semester the Central Bank would be issuing between $1.2 and $1.5 trillion per month. At this rate, at the end of the year we would have a total monetary liability of around $30.0 trillion as a floor, and a ceiling of around $33.0 trillion, if the reserves are located around the US$30,000 millionthe alternative dollars could be located in the $1,000.
Only a successful money laundering by the next government could generate an inflow of dollars that changes the market equation, and transforms alternative dollars into an abundant asset.
What can you invest in?
In this scenario, it would be prudent for you to activate the search for investments in financial or real assets so far in the second half of the year.
Stocks are still a very good investment alternative, be it cedears or local stocks. Argentine bonds have value to capture.
The electoral scenario went from a dispute of third parties, to the classic of Argentine politics, with Together for Change with an internal one that makes it very competitive, and the ruling party that will fight. The market began to arbitrate upwards, you have to diversify, go from dollars to assets.
In the world, the short-term rate in the United States is 5.25% per year, in the United Kingdom 5.0% per year and in Europe 4.0% per year. It is time to move the dollars, the Argentines have close to US$200,000 million parked, in fixed terms with a low rate or in coffers waiting for an investment. If these dollars are not invested, they will lose purchasing power. Think about it, you have to put parked money in motion.
In this context, do not lose sight of investment in real estate, today dismissed by the market, like shares 3 years ago, and today they are worth 3 times more in dollars.
Source: Ambito
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