Without going any further, while a great slowdown was observed in Fixed Term registrations, going from almost $ 8 billion daily average in September to $ 3 billion daily average in the last month, MM increased the pace from 300 million to $ 9.7 thousand million daily average in the same period – a trend that was clearly replicated in the paid accounts, which maintain an average daily increase of $ 14 billion in the last month.
In a context of stable rates, where paid accounts remain above 31% and fixed terms around 34%, as we said the reduction in duration for short-term flows was the (logical) cause. Furthermore, a scenario that we do not expect will change in the coming weeks.
Thus, MM were by far the ones that accounted for most of the net bailout subscriptions received ($ 165 billion out of 223 billion).
In contrast, and for the first time in the year, the RF T + 1 lost a little more than $ 10,500 million. While, of the other two large classifications, it stood out -something that we have been talking about in our reports- the preference for the Dollar Link. These totaled $ 43.6 billion -more than doubling the figure achieved in September-, although they still remain negative so far this year (- $ 11 billion). Meanwhile, the CER funds – which seek to hedge against inflation – recovered the ground lost in September, and closed with a flow in their favor of $ 12 billion, and an accumulated in 2021 of about $ 129 billion.
CERs returned to lead the rankings
If we talk about performance, hedge funds topped the rankings. The political and monetary noise, added to the surprising inflation data (up), boosted the yields -on average- of the CER and DL funds. Specifically, the CER segment advanced 4.3% -above the 3.5% monthly average for the year-, while the DLs added 3.3%-against the 2.1% monthly average of 2021-. The rest of the segments in pesos under analysis remained within the monthly average, with a rise of 2.4%, 2.8% and 3.1% for MM, Fixed Income T + 1 Conservatives and Aggressive, respectively.
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It should be noted that, under their own dynamics given their nature, Equity funds added 8.6% in the month, and accumulated a rise of almost 63% in the year.
Options for weights
With that said, and looking forward, let’s quickly review the rates offered by some of the peso segments. First, the Money Market funds, which are purely transactional – an option for very short-term peso flows. With low volatility, but with negative real rates, these options maintain indicative TNAs between 30% / 31%. Without major changes compared to the last month, and following the stability of the financial system rates. As data, these funds have not massively incorporated (at least, in a global analysis) the new instrument of the Treasury in pesos in less than 30 days. Although the Lelites were improving their conditions -both in their pre-cancellation where the cost of a one-day rate was eliminated, as in their offered TNA (this Thursday it comes out at 34.25%) -, this was not reflected in the amounts. Even if we consider the public data, the T + 1 funds are the ones that went to the tender. Not so, the MM.
Continuing with the T + 1, or fixed income funds with redemption in 24 hours, these seek to minimize the negative real return offered by MM, and incorporate short-term market assets (bills, negotiable obligations or financial trusts, among others). Here we can differentiate between those that are more conservative -depending on the level of liquidity in the position- and more aggressive.
The first maintain indicative Tires are placed around 34/40% annually. Meanwhile, the most aggressive ones, which minimize liquidity and assume -with limitations- a greater market risk (either through bonds adjusted for short inflation, or synthetic rate or dollar -depending on the context-), the Tires indicative shown range from 36% to 54%.
Regarding hedging options, CER funds average positive real rates of 1.4% on average (with a duration around one year). While the Dollar Link -at the same duration- average a negative rate of 1.8% (below the evolution of the official exchange rate).
Team Leader of FCIs en PPI.
Source From: Ambito
