He gave everything he could give and it’s a lot, but 7 out of 10 voters said no. The consensus of analysts says that he could stay in the general election, and then slide, when the “ordinary people”, who still do not know what his electoral platform is about, discover him violating acquired rights. Finally, we will have to see the ballot.
His program includes measures that not even the last civil-military dictatorship could implement and/or did not even dare to hint at. The global trend in voting is a turn to the right (including the extreme right) in all parts of the world, and it was repeated in Argentina. However, the result generatedeither greater uncertainty and volatility in the markets than if the Peronist candidate had won. The Sovereign bonds governed by New York Law, which are operated from all over the world, reflect cuts of around 10%. JPMorgan indicates that a coming period of greater uncertainty is coming, speaks of “uncertain political trajectory.” Companies today, Monday, in Argentina are worth 13% less than on Friday. The establishment is not going to support such potentialization of wealth destruction in their companies and assets.
THE MILEI PLATFORM
The “Milei plan” includes an eenergetic cutbacks in public spending, reduction of national government ministries to only eight portfolios (N. de la R.: the same as all the orthodox proposals that failed in the past), tax reform (N. de la R.: refers to a reduction in taxes without mentioning that the defunding of the State is replaced), labor flexibility (N. de la R.: without taking into account eventual strikes and paralysis of the productive apparatus), privatizations and pension reform (N. de la A.: Macri could not implement them due to the enormous social resistance that began the beginning of the end of his popularity), progressive elimination of social plans with 40% poverty… (N. de la R.: it is obvious that it has not been evaluated social protest, nor the mobilization capacity of social movements).
Milei proposes a deeper adjustment than the IMF: cut benefits: labor, social security, education, health and security strength (very heavy hand). It proposes a reduction in employer contributions, elimination of indemnities without cause, lfree hiring of employees, Elimination of collective labor and parity agreements. Tariff of all health benefits, with the ccreation of universal health insurance proportional to the payment capacity of the recipient of the service. That is to say, No one can receive any health benefit if they do not pay. Construction of penitentiary establishments (wardens and jails) by public-private management system”, privatization of the prison system. For education, present the educational check and decentralization of education, giving the budget to the parents, instead of giving it to the ministry. In an eventual government of Milei lHealth and education would no longer cover the right that the modern State must guarantee since the French Revolution. Commits to “promote a doctrine of National Security and their strategies, according to the classic and the new threats”. The doctrine of National Security has promoted the bloodiest dictatorships “in search of the internal enemy that threatened the nation” in the southern cone. The recipe seems out of context because today there is no East-West conflict. LThe Chicago boys who accompany him (Carlos Rodríguez and Roque Fernández, from UCEMA), would be sending him to the slaughterhouse. The Milei thing generates compassion, if he had a chance to arrive, he could be used as Fernando Sabag Montiel. Returning to the platform, it does not explicitly include a market for the sale of organs or the BCRA fire.
Yesterday I talked about aa comprehensive reform that would take 35 years. That changes everything. Then it would be homeopathic doses that make him equal to his technopol predecessors, whom he has lately branded as traitors and many other things..
BACKGROUND
Never has an Argentine government worn itself out so much in just 2 years of management (1999-2001) as that of Fernando De la Rúa. Milei’s could last less than 6 months if it is applied as outlined in the previous paragraphs.
At the time of resigning from office, De la Rúa’s positive image was only 4%, Milei’s popularity would be “close to zero” in a few months.
The political chaos – product of less cruel measures – into which the De la Rúa government fell, not only manifested itself in the violence of looting and in the massive presence of people in the streets, defying the state of siege and showing civil disobedience unpublished. The requests were turning into claims.
As a general comment, we could summarize that everything was crazy, the turbulence that the country plunged into from the end of 2001, at least until May 2002 (6 months) with the corralito, the social resistance, the state of siege, the outbreak generalized social crisis, the succession of authorities, cessation of payments, devaluation, continued depression, inflation and, above all, indignation and general perplexity, give us the pattern of what could happen.
It would be necessary to review issues from a historical perspective. For this we can quote the Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz who said about Argentina: “For decades the peoples of the underdeveloped world have rebelled when the austerity problems imposed on their countries have been too severe, but their complaints did not tend to have an echo in the West”… [El colapso argentino en 2001 es uno de los más recientes fracasos de los últimos años …]
The influence of “neoliberalism, international organizations and national political actors in crises” has become one of the most relevant political issues in the world context. (A reading of the events of the last decades, in which there have been 124 crises, both in developed and emerging countries between 1970 and 2007, make it clear that Modern Economic Theory -with its hope that free markets and globalization- entities that are assigned the highest seats on the podium to deregulation, financial engineering and privatizations– would rather be the causes and not the sources of inspiration to find the solution, to eliminate the current crises.
During the 2008 global crisis it became clear that even the most skeptical of the contributions of regulation has questioned the argument repeated for three decades as a hypnotic litany: “the best government is a small government” that relinquishes as many functions as possible. that the state does not perform successfully thanks to its well-known inefficiency and corruption, in favor of a supposed -not always proven- greater efficiency and ethics coming from the private sector (Stiglitz).
In this sense, public policies-in terms of economic policy-need a balance between the role of the markets and the role of the government. In the Argentine case of 2001, not only the functioning of political institutions and the economy was affected, but it implied unusual costs in terms of simultaneous social stampedes in different localities of the country, generating instability of magnitude, and even in all aspects ( Gervasoni).
WE ALREADY TESTED DOLLARIZATION
The Dpolarization of the economy. it does not say how, when and how much.
The so-called “Convertibility Law” that regulated the political-economic phenomenon, established the preconditions to start a process of privatization and opening of markets never seen before, creating an institutional support structure, in opposition to the acute social gap that would gradually consolidate. and? It would end with a financial and institutional crisis of a magnitude never seen before.
Director of the Hope Foundation. https://fundacionesperanza.com.ar/
Graduate Professor UBA and Masters in private universities. Master in International Economic Policy, Doctor in Political Science, author of 6 books
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
