. – If you take the sum of monetary liabilities that reaches $24.9 trillion, and divide it by the reserves plus the shipment of U$S 7,500 million from the IMF, this gives us U$S 31,262 million, the relationship between the two gives us as result $796.
Do you say that the blue dollar is going down?
. – If we take a blue dollar quote at $780, that is giving us a gap of 123%, with a gap above 120% it would be wise to sell. If you put this money at 10% per month it is more business.
Is the blue dollar informal money?
. – Yes, but we can make the account by selling the MEP dollar
I like it more
. – The MEP dollar ended the round at $651.40 with a gap of 86.1%. You can sell this dollar and buy a linked dollar bond maturing in April 2024. This bond adjusts for the official dollar price, which is $350, and when you buy the bond you buy it at a value of $346. You buy a dollar more economical and you risk a shortening of the gap in the future. You can also place fixed-term money that yields 9.83% for 4 months, that would leave us a dollar of $947.8 as of next December 17.
Imagine that you sell blue dollars, which is informal money, and you place that same amount in a fixed term for 4 months, what number would you get?
. – If you sell a blue dollar at $760, because when you sell it you do it at a lower value, and you place it for a fixed term moving your company’s white money, on December 17 you would have a dollar at $1,105.9. Here you have to manage the colors, blue is informal money, and the fixed term is formal money.
What is the gap between the blue dollar and the MEP dollar?
. – The gap is 19.7% and shows the degree of government intervention in the formal market, while the informal market is at higher levels. The most real and clean price is that of the blue dollar, but be careful that it is a small and dirty market as it is not formal.
What happens in the futures market?
. – The cash dollar is at $350, and the future December dollar at $625 is the one with the highest rate, which implies that it stands at 209.3% per year. It seems to me that futures are very expensive, and should show a substantial drop in volume, if the market believes that the government will leave the value of the wholesale dollar stable for 90 days.
Would you hedge in the futures market?
. – I see it as very expensive, I would buy linked dollar bonds maturing in December 2024 or September 2024.
What about the market in general?
. – In the United States we have seen strong falls, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting indicate that they will closely follow the price indicators, and everything suggests that the rate hike has not ended, but at the September meeting there is a 88% chance that it will not increase. The expectations of a rise in rates in the last meetings of the year keep the market on edge, to this we must add the poor performance of the Chinese economy that does not stop falling back, this also affects raw materials.
Did I mean Argentina?
. – Bonds fell and recovered after the elections. The shares do not stop rising, discounting that the Argentine economy will have more order and rationality in the future whoever wins. The rate at 9.83% per month looks very attractive, alternative dollars climbed a new notch.
Do you think we are going to see a lower blue dollar?
. – The rise of the wholesale dollar to $350 changed all the prices in the economy. This left the counters with very high prices for the consumer, this implies that sales will fall, the businesses will not be able to finance their structure expenses with these prices, if the prices are not rearranged downwards, some businesses will have to lower the blinds , or change dollars to finance the transition.
Will inflation in August be high?
. – Very high.
Are the prices readjusted?
. – Prices will have to be readjusted because people cannot pay the current prices. For example, in cañuelas the steer rose to $687.9, in one year it increased 116.8% more than inflation. This would leave us the price of the meat on the hook at $1,250. With this value, a kilo of roast should sell for around $3,600. With this price, little roast will be sold, and butchers will have to sell beef, which comes out at a lower price in order to be able to have affordable prices for the wage earner.
Is the limit is the counter?
. – Correct, it is what we are going to see in the next weeks.
There are people who believe that we can go to hyperinflation
. – We can also have an earthquake and a tsunami. Those who develop that theory will have a lot to lose. You have to take advantage of selling at current prices that are very high.
The demand for money could fall
. – Correct, but it is not happening, the market cannot validate higher values in prices, I do not know if you are aware that there is a recession. The information I receive is that if you raise prices, sales plummet. The marketing chain is in a short blanket scenario, prices rise and sales fall.
Conclusion
. – The world is complicated by the rate hike in the United States and the drop in activity in China.
. – Post-election Argentina works with a fixed exchange rate of $350 and rates at 9.83% per month.
. – The blue dollar, close to $800, is very expensive, and the opportunity cost of placing the money in a fixed term is very high.
. – Sales are falling in all areas, the counter will put a limit on price increases.
. – Stocks are rising, and bonds are recovering post-election.
. – Cheer up, we spend many like these, Argentina does not explode, it languishes. There are 94 days left for the second round on November 19
Source: Ambito
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