The calm in the exchange market was short-lived. Nobody wants pesos, everyone wants the dollar. What is the true value of blue?
Nobody wants pesos, everyone wants the dollar.
The calm in the exchange market was short-lived. We are not talking about the wholesale dollar, which remains, as the government promised, at $350, but we are referring to the stock market dollar. This week the MEP rose 3.7% to $705 and the CCL, that is, the dollar used to withdraw money from the country, advanced 8.7% to $820.
Let us remember that the price of $705 results from the AL30 bond, the bond in which the government intervenes daily. In other words, it is the subsidized dollar. But buying dollars with another asset, be it a Cedear, a Ledes or a stock, is more expensive and close to $750.
What is the true value of the blue dollar?
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Nobody wants pesos, everyone wants the dollar. The treasury bond curve has been hit hard, with bills yielding over 350%. CERs and duals also suffer declines due to massive exit of investors seeking to reduce exposure to sovereign risk. This month they close in red.
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Meanwhile, rates in the Matba Rofex forward market heated up. As you can see, the market expects that in October the official dollar (ref 3,500) ends at $386. Somehow, it does not believe Massa that he promised a dollar at $350 until 10/31. It’s more, There is speculation about the possibility of a slight adjustment after the elections. In short, the soy dollar is ending and pressures on the exchange rate are growing.
Furthermore, in December a dollar is expected at $670, which implies a direct increase of 91% (or TNA 362%). Let us remember that in December there is a change of mandate. In other words, the devaluation would come in December with a jump, and then it would stabilize in the 5-7% monthly area, in line with what is expected for inflation today, but of course, if there is a new devaluation, inflation will slow down. would speed up.
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Financial Advisor
Source: Ambito
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