The appearances of false news about a possible corralito generated in the market a possible run against banks where savers went to look for their deposits in Dollars. That a false news generates such distrust only shows a weak government, with institutions that do not provide credibility and a population that is in panic.
A blue dollar at $ 203 and an official dollar at $ 101, with a gap of 100%, is another sign of great mistrust. A gap of this type is difficult to sustain over time.
The reserves yesterday closed at US $ 41,549 million, when we pay the IMF the US $ 1,880 million, the reserves will be below US $ 40,000 million, on August 24 we have a stock reserves of US $ 46,318 million. The government cannot stop the exit.
In 2021, the interest it would pay for the stock of leliq and passes would be around $ 1.3 million million, the stock of Central Bank debt would end the year at around $ 5.3 million million . The monetary base at $ 3.5 billion.
The market observes numbers that are irreconcilable with rationality, a high fiscal deficit financed with monetary issuance, an agreement with the IMF that has not yet been defined and a political scenario that does not fulfill the promises it makes. In short, country risk is skyrocketing, the economy does not show good prospects for 2022.
International markets began to complicate with the appearance of the new Omicrón strain. The Federal Reserve of the United States acts ex officio, it says that inflation is a permanent phenomenon, it would be removing stimuli from the economy and would raise the rate, this will have consequences.
The dollar could revalue in this scenario, raw materials would be more expensive and emerging market currencies would tend to devalue. In short, nothing that helps the poor Argentine economy that has no political direction or economic definitions.
The bonds of the Argentine debt seem to have found a floor, suspiciously yesterday YPF rose, some say that there is confidential information that augurs an early agreement with the IMF, news promised on several occasions and that at the moment is not confirmed.
The versions of raising withholdings on meat, corn and wheat continue to circulate in the market, there is a crack in the cabinet, Roberto Feletti does not agree with the ideas of Julián Domínguez, if there are withholdings someone will end up withdrawing from the government, if not there is also likely that someone will retire from the government.
Beginning in December to rent balconies, an agreement with the IMF would enable a rise in the official dollar, narrow the gap and show a rise in bonds and stocks.
Postponing the agreement with the IMF would invariably lead to a stagnation in the official dollar, a gap that would continue to grow, while bonds and stocks would remain in the subsoil waiting for some news.
Dollar: what will happen by the end of the year?
The month of December is a month where liquidity will be abundant in the market, there will be a lot of money circulating, the holidays will drive sales and the dollar will be highly offered. You have to sell dollars to pay salaries, bonuses and working capital to sustain sales.
January will be the opposite, there will be monetary contraction, the demand for money will fall, and if there are no strong signals in terms of economic policy, the dollar will rise like a barrel. The international context does not help to have a calm summer, if the drought deepens, the dollars that are projected as income for the harvest of the coarse grain will evaporate from the imaginary scenario of the government.
February is a very short month, it will be one of arduous negotiations, until here an agreement with the IMF could be expected, from this month onwards the abyss awaits us if there is no agreement strategy.
March welcomes us with strong debt maturities with the IMF and bonds in pesos adjusted for inflation, it will be the first litmus test of the year 2022, renew a strong debt maturity with the market and agree with the IMF for 10 years with 4 grace .
conclusion
The political class is making a great contribution to the general confusion when it talks about candidacies, internal and political pettiness. They should work to forge an agreement with the IMF, obtain financing for the entire year 2022 and make visible an economic plan to set the course for economic actors.
The field has good international prices, bad local press and high taxes that do not allow it to make profitable what is necessary to continue growing. Livestock collides with a low exchange rate that makes it less competitive and wages with little purchasing power to increase production.
The industry, with a competitive labor cost, manages to increase exports and becomes more dynamic in the domestic market. The same does not happen with the trade item, nor with the recreation sector.
There will be a lot of tourism in the domestic market, traveling abroad is prohibitive, this should allow us to start from a slightly higher level of activity in the first quarter of the year, we do not know if it will be sustainable for the entire year 2022.
We need predictability, with little a lot is done, the problem is that the ruling coalition does not know the path to take and the opposition does not set directions. In short, the wind blows, but we do not know how to orient the sail. Courage, the blue dollar is very expensive and Argentine assets at a gift price, diversify is the watchword.
Financial analyst
Source From: Ambito
