The agreement with the IMF continues in this way

We live in a country where a sufficiently powerful percentage with strong citizen support would not accept to live even a week under the pressure of an external blockade. Trotskyist courage consists in imagining chimerical-fantastic alternatives and that of office conservatism, “accepting what Griesa says” or “falling in love with Lagarde” (Macri), implementing inconsistent inconsistent programs, whose social limit was already established just 20 years ago (See in this same portal the series: “Memoria activa 2001”).

The fantasy of the alternative “Let’s kick the board” is nothing more than a nonsense that prevents us from properly analyzing the situation in which we find ourselves. In war journalism the use of lies as the main political weapon to offer us solutions it coincides with the apparently lucidity of those who consider that nothing is far from their limited field. -How did it not occur to anyone to “kick the board”? –

The Government of Cambiemos succumbed to external imposition and He agreed to whatever was necessary to continue to have lucrative freedoms. They were lavish in donations. The strange payment to the vulture funds with unintelligible loans was “the momentum” for our legislators, politicians and social movements with emancipatory speeches to stand up to the sell-offs and sepoys that were beginning to consummate the cession of the country. A good part of the public rejects the unacceptable perfidy of the faltering PRO-UCR experience, but The now untimely proposition of “no agreement” is an idea that can be exploited to lay the foundations of “the worse the better”.

He would have left incessantly without suffering the pandemic (2015-2019). Resisting is first than conquering. The resistance was a precursor to the return of Perón. And, not the other way around. When a popular government takes over the State in Argentina, he is always faced with an organized hostile lineup to thwart his plans. But nevertheless popular mobilization against an agreement subordinate to the IMF’s standard recipe “pour la gallerie”, help negotiate, although today it has that unique and limited scope.

We agree that nothing would be more outrageous than a Front that is not in harmony with IMF policies, agree to anything. But that is not what has been happening, or it would have already been signed. It is obvious that in the face of organized external and internal coercion, it is developing a negotiating strategy to mitigate the consequences between a break in the negotiations and the obedient assimilation of the standard recipe.

How is everything?

The Government will send to Congress an outline of the economic plan and the potential agreement that will be discussed with the IMF, subsequently, Congress will study its approval. Taking into account that an agreement is signed, it will not be to agree on what the IMF is going to ask for, however it is possible to achieve a consistent and sustainable macroeconomic program in which the imbalances inherited from the Government of Cambiemos and the Pandemic are gradually reduced.

The agreement will not include the repeated advances in implementing the structural reforms of the Washington Consensus. Argentina will not have to accept fiscal, monetary and exchange conditions. There will be quantitative primary fiscal deficit targets, although the IMF will not require a “Dujovne primary deficit” target. Probably there will be nominal targets for the primary deficit, but not as a percentage of GDP. Perhaps the IMF wants the primary deficit of 2022 to be lower than that of 2021, where the increasing levels of collection will contribute decisively.

The IMF will not resist increasing tax pressure, as the government will not cut spending. In fiscal terms, technical resources will be deployed to propose questions about the rates of public services. It is possible that the IMF suggests some reduction in spending on subsidies and that monetary financing to the Treasury should be lowered because the Government does not want to face emerging social consequences of overflows. We will have a less restrictive monetary policy than those that usually occur during the stabilization plans that we have known, the IMF will allow the possibility of issuing currency to buy dollars-as in the NK era-given the reality of net reserves.

Undoubtedly In the world there is a rise in the interest rate, which cannot be ignored. Goals and a path of progressive accumulation of net reserves will ensue, since it is essential to sustain political sovereignty and economic independence. Fortunately, the supply of foreign exchange is voluminous, and although the demand does not give way, a convenient convergence will be achieved. Nobody in the government thinks about a quick elimination of the exchange restrictions. Tacitly, there is the hint of a devaluation of the peso, but it will be no more than that. The ominous forecast of those who dreamed of a break with the IMF is being demolished, the markets are anticipating. Private bonds and papers rose, country risk fell and the price of the so-called blue dollar fell.

The coincidentally desired (by the opposition) and disguised (by the ruling party) struggle inside the front is “For the gallery”, although the diligence of a worthy agreement is not exempt from ups and downs. The IMF knows that in order for what the Macrista Government agreed to comply with, it would be necessary to declare “fasting and prayer” as in the time of Jehoshaphat, but for a period of five years and. the human body is not ready for it.

Let’s study the great pragmatist

Hegel always emphasized that what matters in an act is not the inner intention, but the social result. The Peronists secretly hate the IMF, but It is better for the people for the Peronists to negotiate than to allow Macri to return and agree on himself. Because in this way damages such as those that occurred from 2016 onwards are minimized, for not having closed an agreement -which could be in the worst case, much more worthy- with the vulture funds. – Did we learn our lesson? – Let us remember Marcuse and normal repression, the renunciation of libidinal pressures, necessary for survival.

Exactly 16 years ago (December 2005) Néstor Kirchner decided to cancel the IMF debt in advance and, instead of being happy to collect, the IMF and its servants from the River Plate expressed their concern that Argentina would regain freedom and independence of the multilateral credit organizations, to abandon the rigorous economic policies and indulge in unbridled spending, according to their political conception of public spending.

We know that debt is an instrument of domination: “The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender” (Proverbs 22: 7). The real objective has been more than lending money to get it back with interest, more than the private debt being paid to the funds that made “carry trade”, more than giving $ 20 dollars to anyone who wanted to escape them. The idea was also for the IMF to last forever so that even if Peronism wins, the country remains in a permanent situation of dependency. The Government of Alberto Fernandez admits the debt, but without fault and negotiates knowing that we Argentines are victims. The permanent campaign of the mass media and domestic economists present us as a country that feeds sloths, supported by “normal taxpayers” who assimilate those of “serious countries.” This is false of all falsehood, those who receive the subsidy are tributaries of inflation due to the lack of dollars of those who escaped them.

We have only 8% of the GDP per capita of the top three countries in the world, but we are the third country with the most offshore account beneficiaries, and this not from those who receive plans, but from the corruption of those who made the country insolvent, with a people in misery, who have to pay the debt. After a corrupt government that received easy and expensive money at the service of its foreign beneficiaries and local business friends, some good and naive journalists end up being functional in the event of another period of corruption and inefficiency.