The social doctrine of the church is coherent; It is not a romantic utopianism. We are in 2024, we cannot return to the 19th century, when liberal ideology maximized contractual freedom, allowing anything and refusing to consider the State as a potential source of social good. The working class and the passive class are not willing to abstain from as much as they are proposed to do today. With bad manners, democracy is not a safe placeif they cause an explosion without a containment network, they will crack the foundations as they did in 2001.
CHAOS AND IMPROVISATION DO NOT COME FROM GOD
“And the earth was without order and void” (Genesis 1). As soon as The Torah and The Bible begin, God puts order. God is order, It does not improvise, nor does it have anything to do with chaos and anarchy. The sustainability of fiscal, monetary and exchange policy collapses. A fiscal adjustment that lasts less than ninety days is a improvisationbecause it was only based on the “blender” that requires an inflation of 20% monthly and, even hyperinflation if anything. That’s anarchy. As the IMF “gently” explained, any fiscal adjustment program requires an increase in social spending to mitigate the chaos that can be generated in the most fragile social strata.
The elements that have been providing the sterilization of pesos: the repurchase of bonds from the BCRA by the Treasury with the voluminous financing of debt placements and the launches of Bopreal are withdrawn until they disappear. The moderate increase in reserves is a improvisation because it lies in the deferral of payments for imports and the impetus of the depreciation of the peso that made possible the temporary happiness of exporters as well. The brutal devaluation of more than 120% is being consumed, even Cavallo came out to say that they must accelerate the crawling peg, to stop the expectation of another devaluation and, if they do not do so, the liquidations of the exporters who went to Live them at Expoagro. The inflationary dynamic is going to accelerate, which they cannot contain with a terrible recession.
If this level of economic contraction withstood a social onslaught, it would be possible for inflation to drop at the end of the year, but there is no possibility of waiting until October. Food prices, transportation service rates, energy, etc.; They reached prominent heights and, the best that could happen, if there is no national stampede, is to reach Massa’s worst month in the third quarter. It is not an attractive incentive. For the level of effort that Caputo asks of the middle class, inflation should be in March, the worst for Cristina Kirchner. The one that Patricia Bullrich and Federico Sturzenegger displayed in a small painting: (2% monthly). For an Austrian acolyte this is a socialist economy, even if it were heterodox, they would have the courage to coordinate expectations, but no.
The labor reform collided. It was predictable, even for the most clueless. The vaunted opening of the economy that was going to “stimulate competition and promote better quality products at better prices” (Milei’s hypnotic litany number 7) is not seen. What we see is a DNU “tailored to prebendary business friends”, and Caputo as long as the carry trade works, everything else doesn’t give a damn. The business class that Sturzenegger denounced in the US is very happy. “The financial sector is dancing on two legs on the table, celebrating with champagne. The ones who are not celebrating are the people“Salaries, pensions have not increased and prices rose 50% in two months.” (Carlos Rodríguez)
The fierce reforms of the DNU and the Omnibus Law remain, but they are in limbo. The DNU is in use, but with amputations provided with judicial protection. Prepaid companies are starting to face lawyers. The Omnibus Law was directly withdrawn from Congress unexpectedly given the insufficient legislative support. The “Oaky” strategy did not work in Congress. Politics requires negotiations, pacts and consensus. There is no such thing as “we don’t negotiate anything.”. If all congressmen are coimeros and Congress is a “den of rats”, we should give names, and forget about obtaining favors. If you give me 35 years we will be Germany. “Yeah you get tired of running with them on footHow will you compete with the on horseback? (Jeremiah 12)-
To progress in the reforms and laws that are unpresentable for the opposition and, even for the dialogueists, the forms or the characters seem adequate. To obtain fiscal balance you do not need any effort at conceptual consensus. We all want fiscal balance. Peronism and the left are against economic dependence (ask for more loans)but we must agree on where the gap is closed, approvals are needed.
The May Pact kicks the ball forward to continue “without a plan”, in the midst of chaos. Chaos is the government. The president has an aversion to negotiation and agreement, he wants to impose adhesion contracts, which the governors sign and remain silent. Curiously, he approves of the idea, but does not work to make structural reforms, nor to deregulate the economy where it is more intervened than with opposition governments. Everything indicates that they are looking to save time. The million dollar question is – for what? They are getting the Guinness of the “carry trade”. If Milei doesn’t take off, then Milei is also in the matter. In the middle, salaries and pensions are bursting.
The “imaginary pact” It should be signed after a pre-agreement with governors. It would contain a bundle of fiscal consolation for the provinces that, after discretionally mutilating the funds that should be sent to them, smile in vain. The dissipation of the National Teacher Incentive Fund, they included the exclusion of the FOFOFI for PBA and the transportation compensation fund, which unleashed the duel with Chubut. He seems childish.
In a G20 country, in one of the 7 most important cities in the world-Buenos Aires-, there are rich people dying of “dengue” and the president conference that during COVID, fewer people could have died.
Duran beard RECHARGED
If in February we achieve 15% inflation (20% more than Massa’s worst month), it is a success. In January, a total primary and fiscal surplus was achieved. – AND? – In February it falls. But also Néstor and Cristina Kirchner were pioneers 7 years in a century in sustaining surpluses, between 2003 and 2009. Remember that in 2008, the Lehman Brothers crisis interrupted the cycle.
Even the improvement in January was due to a drop in primary spending due to non-payment. 50% of the reduction was explained by the suspension of social benefits and salaries, plus the inflationary fluorescence that led to the nominal increase being less than inflation, which constitutes a short-sighted strategy because it requires maintaining high and permanent inflation. , so that the reduction in spending is sustainable.
Up to this point, we are seeing a strategy to reduce the deficit based on the “expenditure blender”, but we are not seeing a reform or reorganization of the State, as in the time of Cavallo. Lowering spending by letting contracts expire, closing Télam, Inadi, and stopping public works “at once” is pathetic. It does not respond to any structure, plan or theoretical framework of those mentioned, in the speeches of “let’s talk without knowing”, from the president and his collaborators. Likewise, without maintenance, the infrastructure will suffer. You can’t have a car without changing the oil, refueling, or checking the battery.
It is inhumane to implement a shock by confining retirees to minimum salaries of $95 and, at the same time, becoming the most expensive country in the world. Removing subsidies, oncological remedies, not sending food to soup kitchens, not establishing a social rate, is delusional. Undertaking the expense without gradualism is totally valid for rescuing a company that is about to go bankrupt. It is “corporate logic”. But that’s not how a country works. A conservative, liberal, Peronist or Marxist reengineering of the State requires strategy, plan, program and ideal management. It is not seen anywhere. The most common and persistent source of discord – inequality – deepened.
As things stand, this chaos gives rise to the serious contingency of how far, and for how long, a democracy that is denied the opportunity to affirm its own essence can survive. – What would happen if in a few months the unrest of citizens against this socio-economic anarchy, would result in a grouping of the entire opposition in Congress? – Could the Executive Branch even attempt to fulfill its discursive dystopia? – Remember De la Rúa asking Peronism to co-govern on December 19, 2021. And, if the president plans to use coercive power in favor of his criteria, the Constitution is going to hinder him. In such a dilemma the scene is set today, for a conflict whose outcome no one can predict.
Source: Ambito
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