After a second month of intensity for financial assets, March started with attentive investors. With some caution, but ultimately a certain optimism.
Internationally, among other issues, the path to the presidential elections in the United States will determine much of the pace (and volatility) of Wall Street. But this path is long, in particular, when at the local level some important definitions are expected in the short term.
In politics, for example, it will be about the future of the May Pact. A Pact that gave oxygen to the growing tensions, and that in principle was seen as a call from the Executive to cooperate with the provinces. However, Will there be an agreement? Will the governors accept the course proposed by the ruling party? For the moment, the market remains expectant, but any affirmative signal could lead to a rally in both equity and sovereign and provincial markets.
On the other hand, economically, inflation is lower than expected and there was a better than expected fiscal result in January. This, added to good expectations for the harvest (after the rains) and the accumulation of reserves – together with a pleasant external climate – allow not only to sustain the assets, but also to start this month with a certain optimistic tone.
Therefore, investors’ question is simple to ask, but perhaps not so simple to answer.
Savers: two different portfolios, for two different investor profiles
If we talk about a conservative investorand from a portfolio with local exposure, we suggest 50% in Negotiable Obligations (Ons) in USD. Which is it? Here we believe that there are interesting options in some credits such as YPF 2033, Genneia 2027, Telecom 2025among others, with interest coupons of between 7/9.5% in dollars.
Apart from this, we maintain a position in provincial bonds, although more conservative than perhaps previous months (given that it is not new that the provinces today still remain in the middle of the storm). At this point, we look Mendoza, Córdoba and Neuquén as good alternatives. Finally, with smaller holdings we diversify with sovereign securities in USD and pesos.
February was a good month for the former, and while there was a legislative stumble, most of the economic news was good for debt.
Now, if we talk about a more aggressive portfolio (that is, for those investors who are not afraid of volatility), we believe it is interesting to basically reduce exposure to ONs and provinces to add more weight to bonds in pesos, and to stocks and CEDEARs. Consequently, the result is a portfolio more exposed to pesos than the first.
As for actions, punctually (and despite a complicated February, but believing in the potential of May Pact), we remain with a certain optimism. We could expect a energy sector reboundand greater growth from the financial sector if fiscal signals remain positive.
Pampa Energía, Central Puerto, BBAR, Grupo Financiera Galicia and YPFare some of the papers we monitor.
At the same time, with respect to CEDEARs and within a North American economy that remains resilient (and expanding), we remain optimistic with the positioning in the SPY and QQQ ETFs CEDEARamong others.
Tips for investing
But beyond these specific recommendations, it is always worth remembering some tips when investing.
Among them, for example, knowing what your investor profile is; having an objective – a basic condition in any situation in which one begins to invest, but in current times it can be said that it must have even greater strength; and staying informed and, if necessary, turning to a financial advisor can make a difference in the coming months.
Source: Ambito
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