“90 seconds to a nuclear war”: the Doomsday Clock and the latent threat

“90 seconds to a nuclear war”: the Doomsday Clock and the latent threat

August 21, 2024 – 16:00

We live in times of historic danger, as reflected in the indicator created by Einstein and Oppenheimer and confirmed by the recent leak that confirms that Biden ordered American forces to prepare for possible nuclear confrontations coordinated by Russia, China and North Korea.

The Doomsday Clock is not simply a reminder of danger; it is an urgent call to action.

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In today’s complex and volatile geopolitical landscape, it is not enough to view the world through the prism of our desires or expectations. As Vipin Narang, who served until recently as the US Under Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, warned, we must confront reality as it is, not as we wish it were. This advice is especially pertinent as we consider the growing threat of a global nuclear standoff, a danger that has escalated to unprecedented levels.

Since the creation of the Doomsday Clock Invented in 1947 by scientists of the Manhattan Project, this has become a universal symbol of humanity’s proximity to global catastrophe, using the imagery of the apocalypse (midnight) and the language of the nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey the threats that this new technology posed to humanity and the planet.

Back then, the clock’s hands were set at seven minutes to midnight, indicating concern about a potential nuclear conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. Today, that clock stands at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest point to global destruction in its entire history. This grim scenario is not a mere metaphor, but a tangible warning that we are not in an unstable world but in a highly insecure world. The reasons? Choose your own adventure.

The nuclear threat manifests itself in several dimensions. The war in Ukraine, far from being resolved, keeps alive the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons, especially after the suspension of the treaty. New START and the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Meanwhile, traditional nuclear powers such as the United States, Russia and China are expanding their arsenals, fuelling an arms race reminiscent of the darkest days of the Cold War. Added to this is nuclear proliferation in regions such as Iran and North Korea, whose nuclear ambitions add another layer of global instability.

In addition to other equally pressing crises such as climate change, aggravated by the hottest year on record in 2023, the revolution in life sciences and advances in artificial intelligence, nuclear diagnosis, far from being far from the present, has had a worrying confirmation in recent hours.

In a classified document approved in March, President Biden ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea — a stark reminder that whoever is sworn in on January 20 in Washington will face a different, far more volatile nuclear landscape than the one that existed just three years ago.

During the Cold War, the world managed to avoid a large-scale nuclear conflict thanks to sustained nonproliferation and arms control efforts. However, that safety net has been drastically weakened. The treaty New STARTthe last bastion of US-Russian cooperation in this area, is set to expire in 2026, leaving the world on the brink of an abyss where there are no meaningful limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals that either country can deploy.

The lack of dialogue between nuclear powers and the proliferation of new weapons technologies have created an environment in which the risk of a miscalculation or an act of arrogance can have catastrophic consequences. Indeed, nuclear powers are becoming more numerous and less cautious.

It is imperative that global leaders take responsibility for reversing this dangerous trajectory and work together to reestablish arms control mechanisms that can protect humanity from its own capacity to self-destruct.

The Doomsday Clock is not simply a reminder of danger; it is an urgent call to action. We have condemned another generation to live on a planet that is one gross act of hubris away from destruction. That must change.

International Analyst (USAL-UTDT)

Source: Ambito

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