Key day for the market: laundering dollars can now leave banks and puts more stress on the BCRA reserves

The eyes of analysts are on money laundering. Starting this Tuesday, Banks are expected to withdraw dollar deposits that were laundered during September. One thing to keep in mind is that those who bleached last month will no longer be able to continue doing so despite the extension. A massive departure from dollars could generate tension in the financial markets due to a possible lack of confidence in the Government, while a moderate exit could be a good sign.

For experts, one of the reasons that contributed to the calm of parallel dollars was the rise in deposits. “Since mid-August, almost US$8.5 billion entered the system due to laundering and this helped reduce the country’s risk and calm financial dollars,” said economist Roberto Geretto in Reuters. According to EcoGo, the Government needs this “mass of dollars” to become loanable, for the private sector or for the Government itself.

Another variable to take into account is linked to the Central Bank’s reserves. According to the consulting firm LCG, they are negative around US$5.2 billion. In September, the Central Bank accumulated net purchases of US$373 million, which is why it expects a certain impact on gross reserves from part of the money laundering, to alleviate the existing tension regarding the lack of accumulation of dollars.

A strong reserve drain is always un uncertainty factor that can put more stress on dollars forcing the BCRA to greater intervention to keep them contained.

Blue dollar: what analysts expect for October after the extension of the money laundering

He blue dollar It sank 5.4% in September (lost $70) and after the extension of money laundering, which is expected to increase the supply of currency in the market, the city expects the parallel to continue downward pressure during October. On a financial level, CCL and MEP dollars dropped up to $65 in September, in line with the blue.

Clearly, the bulk supply of dollars product of money laundering It helps this market to be less pressured. In turn, it will also begin to come into play what flow of dollars that entered the system will remain, since their departure would push the MEP and to CCL upwards, with the accompaniment of the bluethe economist explained to Ámbito Federico Glustein.

To the flow of dollars thanks to laundering that can be maintained in the system, we must add the behavior that the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA).

The political stability or instabilitywill also affect the valuation, Glustein assured, although it will depend on the Government’s possibilities of limiting political power, at a time when it still has the support of the market and the voter.

“If the Government maintains the fiscal surplus and the interest rate positive against inflation, the blue dollar will continue to fall,” added the “guru of the city” Salvador di Stéfano.

For Glustein, if the flow of income from money laundering is good and there are no strong political tensions that could impact the parallel, It could drop close to $1,150.

The financial analyst of F2 Soluciones, Andrés Reschinipredicted that it will remain in the $1,200 area, since it does not observe that there may be significant exchange tensions or that the demand for pesos will decline. “We could even see it declining,” he said.

For Salvador Di Stéfano, the currency could find a ceiling of $1,300 and a floor of $1,150.

Finally, the economist Eric Paniagua, of Epyca, projected that the blue will be positioned in the range of $1,215 to $1,230. “Currently, there is a clear downward trend in the dollar in these weeks, particularly with a Government that remains firm in the decision to maintain a low ‘crawling-peg’, and at the same time with an influx of dollars as a result of money laundering, which is going to fully impact the reserves. But, at the same time, there should be a decrease in the liquidity of blue dollars,” he analyzed.