While the blue dollar It is located as the cheapest exchange rate on the market, 40 national and international analysts outlined their forecasts for the coming months and for 2025. Within this framework, analysts corrected their forecasts for the remainder of the year in terms of the dollar and inflation.
Dollar: what is expected for 2024 and 2025
The general consensus of the analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for end of yearis lower than expected last month, since now It is expected that the wholesale dollar will reach a price of $1,135. The lowest value awarded by economists is $1,030, in line with the crawling peg carried out by the Government at 2% and with the official forecast of $1,016 for December.
Regarding the expected wholesale official dollar price By the end of this year, economists believe that “the official exchange rate and the parallel will weaken in the future”, stated the report.
The surveyed analysts agreed that the price of official wholesale dollar will be $1,135.3 by the end of next December, a figure that is 42.7 pesos less than expected in the September survey for the same period, when $1,178 was expected.
Therefore, if we reach that figure, the wholesale exchange rate would advance 40.4% throughout the yeara percentage much lower than the inflation planned for the same period analyzed, which is 131%.
“The Government’s assumptions for GDP growth are notably above the forecasts of our panelists, while the Executive’s projections on inflation and the exchange rate are lower,” FocusEconomics warns.
Even in the estimates published a few days ago by the Central Bank in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) to some 42 national economists, the average validated for the end of the year is $1,021.5.
Lastly, puntil the end of 2025the economists surveyed by FocusEconomics estimate that the wholesale dollar will reach $1,605.4. That is, a figure well above what was anticipated by the Government in the 2025 Budget presented in Congress weeks ago, where Caputo indicated that the exchange rate for December of that year will be $1,207.
Which consulting firms estimate a lower and higher dollar at the end of 2024
The highest prices expected by analysts for the end of next December are led by the national companies Empiria Consultores ($1,481), Econviews ($1,466) and OJF & Asociados, with $1,447.
The lower prices respond to the forecast of Pezco Economics ($973.5), Econometrica ($1,000), Moody’s Analytics ($1,005) and Barclays Capital ($1,019).
Inflation: what is expected at the end of 2024 and 2025
Like the expectation of the dollar, the Inflation is considered to remain downward. Economists say it “should continue to decline in the future based on a high comparison base, constrained public spending and a recent reduction of a key import tariff. However, currency depreciation and subsidy cuts will keep inflation high by Latin American standards.
In this sense, the Experts predict that consumer prices will increase by 131% on average in 2024, which represents a reduction of 2.5 percentage points compared to what was forecast a month ago, and an increase of 60.5% on average in 2025.-
Source: Ambito
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